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The international synchronisation of business cycles: the role of animal spirits

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  • de Grauwe, Paul
  • Ji, Yuemei

Abstract

Business cycles among industrial countries are highly correlated. We develop a two-country behavioral macroeconomic model where the synchronization of the business cycle is produced endogenously. The main channel of synchronization occurs through a propagation of “animal spirits”, i.e. waves of optimism and pessimism that become correlated internationally. We find that this propagation occurs with relatively low levels of trade integration. We do not need a correlation of exogenous shocks to generate synchronization. We also empirically test the main predictions of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "The international synchronisation of business cycles: the role of animal spirits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68898, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:68898
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/68898/
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    Cited by:

    1. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 208-229.
    2. de Haan, Jakob & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Zijm, Renske, 2024. "Coherence of output gaps in the euro area: The impact of the COVID-19 shock," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Anja Sebbesen & Harald Oberhofer, 2024. "The propagation of business expectations within the European Union," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1082-1103, September.
    4. Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2022. "International information flows, sentiments, and cross‐country business cycle fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1110-1147, September.
    5. Hou, Jia & Knaze, Jakub, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Regimes on Business Cycle Synchronization: A Robust Analysis," MPRA Paper 95182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bertasiute, Akvile & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2020. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    8. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    9. Cristina Badarau & Florence Huart & Ibrahima Sangaré, 2021. "Households saving and financial spillovers in the Euro area," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 660-687, October.
    10. Yuriy Bilan & Maryna Brychko & Anna Buriak & Tetyana Vasilyeva, 2019. "Financial, business and trust cycles: the issues of synchronization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 113-138.
    11. Paul Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2018. "Behavioural Economics is Useful Also in Macroeconomics: The Role of Animal Spirits," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(2), pages 203-216, June.
    12. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2019. "Loss aversion, economic sentiments and international consumption smoothing," Working Papers 35, European Stability Mechanism.
    13. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 190-201.
    14. Binh Thai Pham & Hector Sala, 2022. "Cross-country connectedness in inflation and unemployment: measurement and macroeconomic consequences," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1123-1146, March.
    15. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Business Cycle Co-Movement in Europe: Trade, Industry Composition and the Single Currency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-139, February.
    16. Rima Rubčinskaitė & Laimutė Urbšienė, 2024. "What matters for the economic synchronization of the Baltic States," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 645-678, August.
    17. Masato Nakao & Toichiro Asada, 2022. "Purchase of government bonds by a supranational central bank: its impact on business cycles," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 395-424, April.
    18. Jia Hou & Jakub Knaze, 2022. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycle Synchronization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 523-564, July.
    19. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2021. "International confidence spillovers and business cycles in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 773-798, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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