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(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?

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  • Gießler Stefan

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research, Kleine Maerkerstraße 8, Halle (Saale)D-06108, Germany)

  • Heinisch Katja

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research, Kleine Maerkerstraße 8, Halle (Saale)D-06108, Germany)

  • Holtemöller Oliver

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research, Kleine Maerkerstraße 8, Halle (Saale)D-06108, Germany)

Abstract

We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators and we employ several empirical methods. Overall, we find that the regional business cycles have synchronised over time. GDP-based indicators and survey data show a higher degree of synchronisation than the indicators based on unemployment rates. However, synchronisation among East and West German business cycles seems to have become weaker again recently.

Suggested Citation

  • Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:241:y:2021:i:1:p:1-28:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2019-0026
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    Cited by:

    1. João C. Claudio & Katja Heinisch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2020. "Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 29-54, January.
    2. Lehmann, Robert & Wikman, Ida, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," MPRA Paper 112642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2023. "Eine Analyse der Konjunkturzyklen für die deutschen Bundesländer," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 30(02), pages 15-21, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; synchronization; East Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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