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Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage

  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    ()

Die Analyse und Prognose regionaler Konjunkturzyklen gewinnt immer mehr an Bedeutung. Bisher liegt aber keine kohärente Beschreibung und Analyse regionaler Konjunkturzyklen für die 16 Bundesländer in Deutschland vor. In einer dreiteiligen Reihe im ifo Schnelldienst wird beschrieben, wie regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland definiert und datiert werden können, und untersucht, inwieweit die regionale Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Zeitablauf konvergiert. Der erste Beitrag in dieser Ausgabe beschreibt die Datenlage in den Bundesländern. Aufgrund fehlender Unterjährigkeit des Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Bundesländern wird gezeigt, wie die monatlichen Umsätze im verarbeitenden Gewerbe näherungsweise als repräsentativ für den Konjunkturzyklus interpretiert werden können.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2009/ifosd_2009_13_3.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 13 (07)
Pages: 18-24

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:13:p:18-24
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  1. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "Prognosen der regionalen Konjunkturentwicklung," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(34), pages 469-474.
  2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Ein Präzisionswerk zur Analyse der Wirtschaft," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
  3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Vierteljährliche Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen für Sachsen : Ergebnisse für das erste Quartal," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 12-16, 08.
  4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, 08.
  5. Christian Seiler, 2009. "Prediction Qualities of the Ifo Indicators on a Temporal Disaggregated German GDP," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 67, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Vierteljährliche volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen für Sachsen mit Hilfe temporaler Disaggregation," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 24-36, 08.
  7. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2003. "Die Konstruktion und Schätzung eines Frühindikators für die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Freien und Hansestadt Hamburg," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20305, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  8. Udo Ludwig, 2004. "IWH-Konjunkturbarometer," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 10(16), pages 458-458.
  9. Erich Langmantel, 1999. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima als Indikator für die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(16-17), pages 16-21, October.
  10. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  11. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Stefan Kooths & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Konjunkturprognosen für Bundesländer setzen Verbesserung der Datensituation voraus," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(24), pages 318-325.
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