Prediction Qualities of the Ifo Indicators on a Temporal Disaggregated German GDP
This paper compares the German Gross Domestic Product between 1991 and 2008 with the Ifo business indicators. Because GDP is published quarterly but the Ifo indicators monthly, the most analyses compare these variables by merging the indicators to quarterly data. In this paper an alternative way is shown: GDP will be disaggregated with ECOTRIM, a software package from Eurostat, to get monthly data. Furthermore, a spline-based disaggregation approach is discussed. The results of the analyses demonstrate a high connection between the disaggregated GDP and the Ifo indicators.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München|
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971.
"Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2007:i::p:26-31 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ulrich Fritsche, 1999. "Vorlaufeigenschaften von Ifo-Indikatoren für Westdeutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 179, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, 02.
- Jan Jacobs,, 1994. ""Dividing by 4": A feasible quarterly forecasting method?," Working Papers 22, Centre for Economic Research, University of Groningen and University of Twente.
- GINSBURGH, Victor A., "undated".
"A further note on the derivation of quarterly figures consistent with annual data,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
161, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Victor Ginsburgh, 1973. "A further note on the derivation of quarterly figures consistent with annual data," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1781, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2002. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 1-3, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.