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Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur

  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Das ifo Geschäftsklima für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft ist ein viel beachteter Frühindikator für die Konjunktur in Deutschland. Die hier präsentierten Berechnungen zeigen, dass das ifo Geschäftsklima hinsichtlich der Vorlaufeigenschaften speziell an konjunkturellen Wendepunkten sehr gut abschneidet. Im betrachteten Untersuchungszeitraum 1970 bis 2006 konnte das ifo Geschäftsklima die weitaus überwiegende Zahl der datierten Wendepunkte frühzeitig signalisieren.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2007/ifosd_2007_3_3.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 60 (2007)
Issue (Month): 03 (02)
Pages: 26-31

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:03:p:26-31
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  1. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
  2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  3. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
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