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The Ifo Business Climate and turning points of the German business cycle

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  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade is a reliable and much-followed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. Calculations of the Ifo Institute confirm that the Ifo Index gives advance indication of business-cycle turning points. In the period examined - 1970 to 2006 - the Ifo Business Climate provided early signals for most of the cyclical turning points.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate and turning points of the German business cycle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:03:p:26-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Forecasting qualities of the Ifo Business Climate Index - a look at recent studies," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methods of business cycle forecasting," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Rei, 2016. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2016–2018: Germany’s Robust Economy Faces a Year of Uncertain International Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(24), pages 28-73, December.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate: A reliable leading indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    3. Sabine Rumscheidt, 2017. "Die ifo Konjunkturumfrage im Großhandel – Frühindikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Branche?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(11), pages 49-54, June.
    4. Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen der Umstellung auf die neue Wirtschaftszweigklassifikation für die Regionalauswertung des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(05), pages 28-31, October.
    5. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
    7. Robert Lehmann & Wolf-Dietmar Speich & Roman Straube & Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Funktioniert der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten? : eine Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen ifo Geschäftsklima und amtlichen Konjunkturdaten für Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(03), pages 8-14, 06.
    8. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "The Ifo Business Climate and the German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    9. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Drei Monitorsysteme zur Analyse der sächsischen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(06), pages 33-39, December.
    10. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Markov Switching and the Ifo Business Climate," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(10), pages 25-30, May.
    11. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Economic Forecasts Today– Possibilities and Problems," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
    12. Christian Seiler, 2009. "Prediction Qualities of the Ifo Indicators on a Temporal Disaggregated German GDP," ifo Working Paper Series 67, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Robert Lehmann & Wolf-Dietmar Speich & Roman Straube & Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Funktioniert der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten? : eine Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen ifo Geschäftsklima und amtlichen Konjunkturdaten für Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(03), pages .8-14, June.
    14. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    15. Klaus Abberger & Maximilian Frey & Michaela Kesina & Anna Wolf, 2009. "Indicators for global economic activity," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(16), pages 32-41, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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