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Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur

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  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

Das ifo Geschäftsklima für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft ist ein viel beachteter Frühindikator für die Konjunktur in Deutschland. Die hier präsentierten Berechnungen zeigen, dass das ifo Geschäftsklima hinsichtlich der Vorlaufeigenschaften speziell an konjunkturellen Wendepunkten sehr gut abschneidet. Im betrachteten Untersuchungszeitraum 1970 bis 2006 konnte das ifo Geschäftsklima die weitaus überwiegende Zahl der datierten Wendepunkte frühzeitig signalisieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:03:p:26-31
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifosd_2007_3_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen der Umstellung auf die neue Wirtschaftszweigklassifikation für die Regionalauswertung des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(05), pages 28-31, October.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Wolf-Dietmar Speich & Roman Straube & Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Funktioniert der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten? : eine Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen ifo Geschäftsklima und amtlichen Konjunkturdaten für Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(03), pages 8-14, 06.
    6. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
    8. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Drei Monitorsysteme zur Analyse der sächsischen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(06), pages 33-39, December.
    9. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Markov-Switching und ifo Geschäftsklima," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(10), pages 25-30, May.
    10. Christian Seiler, 2009. "Prediction Qualities of the Ifo Indicators on a Temporal Disaggregated German GDP," ifo Working Paper Series 67, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. repec:ces:ifodre:v:17:y:2010:i:03:p:s.8-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Klaus Abberger & Maximilian Frey & Michaela Kesina & Anna Wolf, 2009. "Indikatoren für die globale Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(16), pages 32-41, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geschäftsklima; Konjunktur; Verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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