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Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests

  • Georg Goldrian
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    Die Ergebnisse des Konjunkturtests des ifo Instituts gelten allgemein als Frühindikatoren für die aktuelle konjunkturelle Entwicklung in Deutschland. Schon die Beurteilung der Lage hat einen Veröffentlichungsvorsprung von etwa sechs Wochen gegenüber den entsprechenden Daten der amtlichen Statistik. Die Erwartungen weisen darüber hinaus in die Zukunft von drei bis sechs Monaten. Führt man die Befragungsergebnisse mit und ohne Daten der amtlichen Statistik in Modellansätzen zusammen, so kann man die kurzfristige konjunkturelle Entwicklung von wirtschaftlichen Größen, z.B. Konjunkturtendenzen auf Branchenebene, zuverlässig prognostizieren.

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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2003/ifosd_2003_8_4.pdf
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    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 56 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 08 (04)
    Pages: 31-33

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:08:p:31-33
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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
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