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Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Berlemann

    (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg)

  • Gerit Vogt

    (ifo Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Niederlassung Dresden)

Abstract

Die Haeufigkeit von Naturkatastrophen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten deutlich zugenommen. Vor diesem Hintergrund gewinnt die Frage an Bedeutung, welche oekonomischen Konsequenzen mit dem Auftreten von Naturkatastrophen verbunden sind. In der Literatur werden sowohl Argumente fuer positive als auch negative Wachstumseffekte diskutiert. In diesem Aufsatz wird mit Hilfe von oekonometrischen Zeitreihenmodellen untersucht, inwieweit sich die Hochwasserkatastrophe vom August 2002 kurzfristig auf das Wirtschaftswachstum in Sachsen ausgewirkt hat. Den Ergebnissen zufolge ueberwogen die positiven Wachstumseffekte. Ohne die Flutkatastrophe waere das Wachstum des saechsischen Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Jahren 2002, 2003 und 2004 vermutlich um 0,6, 1,8 beziehungsweise 0,5 Prozentpunkte niedriger ausgefallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Working Paper 69/2007, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2007_069
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Protection against major catastrophes: An economic perspective," HWWI Research Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    2. Jürgen Michels & Gunther Schnabl & Helmut Schleweis & Dominik Löber & Michael Menhart & Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2019. "Gewinner und Verlierer in der Welt dauerhafter Niedrigzinsen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(20), pages 03-23, October.
    3. Michael Berlemann & Daniela Wenzel, 2018. "Precipitation and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 7258, CESifo.
    4. Berlemann, Michael & Steinhardt, Max F. & Tutt, Jascha, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," IZA Discussion Papers 9026, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Jahn, Malte, 2014. "A spatial computable general equilibrium model for the analysis of regional climate change impacts and adaptation policies," HWWI Research Papers 154, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    6. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(2), pages 5-14.
    7. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, July.
    8. Jahn, Malte, 2013. "Economics of extreme weather events in cities: Terminology and regional impact models," HWWI Research Papers 143, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    9. Mona Förtsch & Xenia Frei & Anna Kremer & Lisa-Marie Müller, 2021. "Die Resilienz deutscher Kreise gegenüber der Naturkatastrophe Sturm „Lothar“," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(02), pages 09-14, April.
    10. Berlemann, Michael, 2015. "Hurricane Risk, Happiness and Life Satisfaction. Some Empirical Evidence on the Indirect Effects of Natural Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Heike Auerswald & Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Verarbeitende Gewerbe – Ergebnisse einer Unternehmensbefragung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(02), pages 16-22, April.
    12. Christin Hoffmann & Gunter Stephan, 2018. "Regional Flood Impacts And Adaptation In A Federal Setting: A Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Analysis For Switzerland," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-36, May.
    13. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 10, 06.
    14. Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Guido Baldi & Jacek Bednarz & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Hella Engerer & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & Pia, 2013. "Sommergrundlinien 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(25), pages 3-44.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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