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Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen

Author

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  • Berlemann, Michael

    () (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg)

  • Vogt, Gerit

    (ifo Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Niederlassung Dresden)

Abstract

Die Haeufigkeit von Naturkatastrophen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten deutlich zugenommen. Vor diesem Hintergrund gewinnt die Frage an Bedeutung, welche oekonomischen Konsequenzen mit dem Auftreten von Naturkatastrophen verbunden sind. In der Literatur werden sowohl Argumente fuer positive als auch negative Wachstumseffekte diskutiert. In diesem Aufsatz wird mit Hilfe von oekonometrischen Zeitreihenmodellen untersucht, inwieweit sich die Hochwasserkatastrophe vom August 2002 kurzfristig auf das Wirtschaftswachstum in Sachsen ausgewirkt hat. Den Ergebnissen zufolge ueberwogen die positiven Wachstumseffekte. Ohne die Flutkatastrophe waere das Wachstum des saechsischen Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Jahren 2002, 2003 und 2004 vermutlich um 0,6, 1,8 beziehungsweise 0,5 Prozentpunkte niedriger ausgefallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Berlemann, Michael & Vogt, Gerit, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Working Paper 69/2007, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2007_069
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
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    3. Ludwig, Udo & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich, 2002. "Die Hochwasserkatastrophe und das Sozialprodukt in Deutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 8(12), pages 353-356.
    4. Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heike Auerswald & Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Verarbeitende Gewerbe – Ergebnisse einer Unternehmensbefragung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(02), pages 16-22, April.
    2. Jahn, Malte, 2014. "A spatial computable general equilibrium model for the analysis of regional climate change impacts and adaptation policies," HWWI Research Papers 154, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Jahn, Malte, 2013. "Economics of extreme weather events in cities: Terminology and regional impact models," HWWI Research Papers 143, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. Michael Berlemann & Max Steinhardt & Jascha Tutt, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 763, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Guido Baldi & Jacek Bednarz & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Hella Engerer & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & Pia, 2013. "Sommergrundlinien 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(25), pages 3-44.
    6. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, June.
    7. Berlemann, Michael, 2015. "Hurricane Risk, Happiness and Life Satisfaction. Some Empirical Evidence on the Indirect Effects of Natural Disasters," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 10, 06.
    9. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Protection against major catastrophes: An economic perspective," HWWI Research Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    10. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(2), pages 5-14.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Naturkatastrophen; Wirtschaftswachstum; Zeitreihenmodelle;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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