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Sommergrundlinien 2013

Listed author(s):
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Simon Junker
  • Guido Baldi
  • Jacek Bednarz
  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Franziska Bremus
  • Karl Brenke
  • Christian Dreger
  • Hella Engerer
  • Christoph Große Steffen
  • Hendrik Hagedorn
  • Pia John
  • Philipp König
  • Dirk Ulbricht
  • Kristina v. Deuverden

Due to a weak winter half-year, the German economy will only grow by 0.4 percent in 2013. However, the economic slowdown seems to be coming to an end now; growth in 2014 is expected to be above average at 1.8 percent. The global economy is experiencing an upswing again; growth in many emerging markets as well as in the US and Japan has recently gained momentum, facilitated in many places by an expansive economic policy. Moreover, the mechanisms created to stabilize financial markets in the euro area have noticeably alleviated uncertainty. However, high unemployment and the need to reduce the high level of debt - public as well as private - remain a problem. The euro area economy will continue to shrink for the time being, but the extent of the economic slowdown has already diminished significantly. A rise in exports is on the horizon in many places, which can be partly attributed to improved competitiveness. In many crisis countries, there has been considerable progress in reducing excess capacities, resulting in dampening effects being increasingly eliminated. By the beginning of 2014, positive growth rates can be expected again in the crisis countries, too. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird wegen des schwachen Winterhalbjahres in diesem Jahr nur um 0,4 Prozent wachsen. Allerdings dürfte die Schwächephase wohl bereits überwunden sein; im kommenden Jahr wird das Wachstum mit 1,8 Prozent kräftig sein. Die Weltkonjunktur ist wieder auf einen Aufwärtstrend eingeschwenkt; die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in vielen Schwellenländern, aber auch in den USA und Japan hat zuletzt etwas Fahrt aufgenommen, vielerorts unterstützt durch eine expansive Wirtschaftspolitik. Darüber hinaus haben die zur Stabilisierung der Finanzmärkte im Euroraum geschaffenen Instrumente einen spürbaren Rückgang der Unsicherheit mit sich gebracht. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist aber nach wie vor hoch und die Verschuldung - öffentlich wie auch privat - muss weiter deutlich zurückgeführt werden. Im Euroraum wird die Wirtschaft zunächst weiter schrumpfen, allerdings bei Weitem nicht mehr so stark. Vielerorts zeichnet sich eine Ausweitung der Exporte ab, die zum Teil auch auf eine Verbesserung der preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zurückzuführen ist. In vielen Krisenländern ist der Abbau von Überkapazitäten merklich vorangeschritten und damit verbundene dämpfende Effekte fallen nach und nach weg. Ab dem Jahreswechsel 2013/14 dürfte die Wirtschaft auch in den Krisenländern wachsen.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal DIW Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 80 (2013)
Issue (Month): 25 ()
Pages: 3-44

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-25-1
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  1. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Ludwig, Udo & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich, 2002. "Die Hochwasserkatastrophe und das Sozialprodukt in Deutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 8(12), pages 353-356.
  3. Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," ifo Working Paper Series 52, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  4. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650.
  5. Kristina van Deuverden, 2013. "Mittelfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung: stabiles Wachstum und hohe Überschüsse der öffentlichen Haushalte," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(16), pages 3-11.
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