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Sommergrundlinien 2013

Author

Listed:
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Simon Junker
  • Guido Baldi
  • Jacek Bednarz
  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Franziska Bremus
  • Karl Brenke
  • Christian Dreger
  • Hella Engerer
  • Christoph Große Steffen
  • Hendrik Hagedorn
  • Pia John
  • Philipp König
  • Dirk Ulbricht
  • Kristina v. Deuverden

Abstract

Due to a weak winter half-year, the German economy will only grow by 0.4 percent in 2013. However, the economic slowdown seems to be coming to an end now; growth in 2014 is expected to be above average at 1.8 percent. The global economy is experiencing an upswing again; growth in many emerging markets as well as in the US and Japan has recently gained momentum, facilitated in many places by an expansive economic policy. Moreover, the mechanisms created to stabilize financial markets in the euro area have noticeably alleviated uncertainty. However, high unemployment and the need to reduce the high level of debt - public as well as private - remain a problem. The euro area economy will continue to shrink for the time being, but the extent of the economic slowdown has already diminished significantly. A rise in exports is on the horizon in many places, which can be partly attributed to improved competitiveness. In many crisis countries, there has been considerable progress in reducing excess capacities, resulting in dampening effects being increasingly eliminated. By the beginning of 2014, positive growth rates can be expected again in the crisis countries, too. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird wegen des schwachen Winterhalbjahres in diesem Jahr nur um 0,4 Prozent wachsen. Allerdings dürfte die Schwächephase wohl bereits überwunden sein; im kommenden Jahr wird das Wachstum mit 1,8 Prozent kräftig sein. Die Weltkonjunktur ist wieder auf einen Aufwärtstrend eingeschwenkt; die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in vielen Schwellenländern, aber auch in den USA und Japan hat zuletzt etwas Fahrt aufgenommen, vielerorts unterstützt durch eine expansive Wirtschaftspolitik. Darüber hinaus haben die zur Stabilisierung der Finanzmärkte im Euroraum geschaffenen Instrumente einen spürbaren Rückgang der Unsicherheit mit sich gebracht. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist aber nach wie vor hoch und die Verschuldung - öffentlich wie auch privat - muss weiter deutlich zurückgeführt werden. Im Euroraum wird die Wirtschaft zunächst weiter schrumpfen, allerdings bei Weitem nicht mehr so stark. Vielerorts zeichnet sich eine Ausweitung der Exporte ab, die zum Teil auch auf eine Verbesserung der preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zurückzuführen ist. In vielen Krisenländern ist der Abbau von Überkapazitäten merklich vorangeschritten und damit verbundene dämpfende Effekte fallen nach und nach weg. Ab dem Jahreswechsel 2013/14 dürfte die Wirtschaft auch in den Krisenländern wachsen.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Guido Baldi & Jacek Bednarz & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Hella Engerer & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & Pia, 2013. "Sommergrundlinien 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(25), pages 3-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-25-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle forecast; economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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