IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/diw/diwwob/80-16-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mittelfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung: stabiles Wachstum und hohe Überschüsse der öffentlichen Haushalte

Author

Listed:
  • Kristina van Deuverden

Abstract

The German economy will experience significantly stronger growth up to 2017 than it has in the past five years. Economic growth will increasingly be driven by domestic demand, and job creation will continue. In the medium term, there will be increasing surpluses in public budgets; in 2017, these will reach almost 28 billion euros. At the beginning of the projection period - as in recent years - it is mainly social security contributions that will generate high surpluses. This situation will change in the medium term. Budget surpluses will increase steadily, even in economically adjusted terms, and the debt ratio will decrease significantly. This means an important milestone in fiscal consolidation has been achieved, but further action is needed. Towards the end of this decade, the effects of demographic change will start to be a burden on public finances. Looking at the emerging challenges, fiscal policy should use this healthy cash position to set a course today for higher potential growth in future. Spending on infrastructure and on research and education should be adopted as a priority. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird bis zum Jahr 2017 deutlich stärker wachsen als in den vergangenen fünf Jahren. Dabei wird die Dynamik immer mehr durch die Binnenwirtschaft getragen, und der Aufbau der Beschäftigung setzt sich fort. Die öffentlichen Haushalte werden in der mittleren Frist mit zunehmenden Überschüssen abschließen, im Jahr 2017 mit knapp 28 Milliarden Euro. Sind es zu Beginn des Projektionszeitraums - wie auch in den vergangenen Jahren - vor allem die Sozialversicherungen, die Überschüsse generieren, dreht sich dies in der mittleren Frist um. Der Finanzierungssaldo des Staates nimmt zudem auch in konjunkturell bereinigter Betrachtung stetig zu, und die Schuldenstandsquote bildet sich deutlich zurück. Damit ist ein wichtiges Zwischenziel bei der Haushaltskonsolidierung erreicht, dennoch besteht Handlungsbedarf. Gegen Ende dieses Jahrzehnts werden die Folgen des demographischen Wandels die öffentlichen Finanzen zu belasten beginnen. Mit Blick auf die sich abzeichnenden Herausforderungen sollte die Finanzpolitik die gute Kassenlage nutzen und heute die Weichen für ein zukünftig höheres potentielles Wachstum stellen. Ausgaben für Infrastruktur sowie für Forschung und Bildung sollten Priorität haben.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristina van Deuverden, 2013. "Mittelfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung: stabiles Wachstum und hohe Überschüsse der öffentlichen Haushalte," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(16), pages 3-11.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-16-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.419352.de/13-16-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Guido Baldi & Jacek Bednarz & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Hella Engerer & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & Pia, 2013. "Sommergrundlinien 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(25), pages 3-44.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic outlook; forecast of budgets; deficits and debt;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-16-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.