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Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen

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  • Michael Berlemann
  • Gerit Vogt

Abstract

Die Häufigkeit von Naturkatastrophen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten deutlich zugenommen. Vor diesem Hintergrund gewinnt die Frage an Bedeutung, welche ökonomischen Konsequenzen mit dem Auftreten von Naturkatastrophen verbunden sind. In der Literatur werden sowohl Argumente für positive als auch negative Wachstumseffekte diskutiert. In diesem Aufsatz wird mit Hilfe von ökonometrischen Zeitreihenmodellen untersucht, inwieweit sich die Hochwasserkatastrophe vom August 2002 kurzfristig auf das Wirtschaftswachstum in Sachsen ausgewirkt hat. Den Ergebnissen zufolge überwogen die positiven Wachstumseffekte. Ohne die Flutkatastrophe wäre das Wachstum des sächsischen Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Jahren 2002, 2003 und 2004 vermutlich um 0,6, 1,8 beziehungsweise 0,5 Prozentpunkte niedriger ausgefallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," ifo Working Paper Series 52, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    3. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Konsequenzen für die Konjunkturanalyse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, March.
    5. Ludwig, Udo & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich, 2002. "Die Hochwasserkatastrophe und das Sozialprodukt in Deutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 8(12), pages 353-356.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Protection against major catastrophes: An economic perspective," HWWI Research Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    2. Berlemann, Michael & Steinhardt, Max F. & Tutt, Jascha, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," IZA Discussion Papers 9026, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Jahn, Malte, 2014. "A spatial computable general equilibrium model for the analysis of regional climate change impacts and adaptation policies," HWWI Research Papers 154, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(2), pages 5-14.
    5. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, June.
    6. Jahn, Malte, 2013. "Economics of extreme weather events in cities: Terminology and regional impact models," HWWI Research Papers 143, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    7. Berlemann, Michael, 2015. "Hurricane Risk, Happiness and Life Satisfaction. Some Empirical Evidence on the Indirect Effects of Natural Disasters," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Heike Auerswald & Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Verarbeitende Gewerbe – Ergebnisse einer Unternehmensbefragung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(02), pages 16-22, April.
    9. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 10, 06.
    10. Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Guido Baldi & Jacek Bednarz & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Hella Engerer & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & Pia, 2013. "Sommergrundlinien 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(25), pages 3-44.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Naturkatastrophen; Wirtschaftswachstum; Zeitreihenmodelle;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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