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Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen

  • Michael Berlemann
  • Gerit Vogt

Die Häufigkeit von Naturkatastrophen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten deutlich zugenommen.Vor diesem Hintergrund gewinnt die Frage an Bedeutung, welche ökonomischenKonsequenzen mit dem Auftreten von Naturkatastrophen verbunden sind. In derLiteratur werden sowohl Argumente für positive als auch negative Wachstumseffektediskutiert. In diesem Aufsatz wird mit Hilfe von ökonometrischen Zeitreihenmodellenuntersucht, inwieweit sich die Hochwasserkatastrophe vom August 2002 kurzfristig aufdas Wirtschaftswachstum in Sachsen ausgewirkt hat. Den Ergebnissen zufolge überwogendie positiven Wachstumseffekte. Ohne die Flutkatastrophe wäre das Wachstum dessächsischen Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Jahren 2002, 2003 und 2004 vermutlich um0,6, 1,8 beziehungsweise 0,5 Prozentpunkte niedriger ausgefallen.

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Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 52.

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Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_52
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  1. Udo Ludwig & Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, 2002. "Die Hochwasserkatastrophe und das Sozialprodukt in Deutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 8(12), pages 353-356.
  2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Konsequenzen für die Konjunkturanalyse," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, 03.
  3. Seitz, Franz & Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 0254, European Central Bank.
  4. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Udo Ludwig, 2002. "Vierteljährliche Entstehungsrechnung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für Ostdeutschland: Sektorale Bruttowertschöpfung," IWH Discussion Papers 164, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
  6. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
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