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The introduction of the previous-year price basis in German National Accounts: Consequences for business-cycle analysis

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

The real gross domestic product (GDP), the most important indicator of economic activity and growth, has up to now been published in the German National Accounts (VGR) at constant prices of a base year (fixed price basis). Following the decision of the European Commission of 30 November 1998, the concept of the previous-year price base for GDP estimates will be introduced in the next VGR revision this spring. This article examines the new calculation method, the reason for the system change and some consequences of the new calculation for business-cycle analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "The introduction of the previous-year price basis in German National Accounts: Consequences for business-cycle analysis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:05:p:19-27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karl Whelan, 2000. "A guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Besonderheiten der Quartalsrechnung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(15), pages 14-21, August.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methods of business cycle forecasting," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Economic growth in national accounting: a comparison between Germany and the U.S," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(03), pages 41-51, March.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Economic growth in the system of national accounts: the introduction of the previous-year price base in the German statistics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(05), pages 28-34, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. ""Timing ist alles" : Konsequenzen der Entscheidung über die Ziel-1-Fördergebiete der Europäischen Kohäsions- und Strukturpolitik vom Dezember 2005 für den Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(06), pages .3-11, December.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Previous-year price basis: Calculating rules for aggregation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(22), pages 12-16, November.
    3. Berlemann, Michael & Vogt, Gerit, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Working Paper 69/2007, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    4. Grömling, Michael, 2005. "Sinn und Unsinn von Quoten auf Basis von preisbereinigten Werten," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 50, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33.
    6. Michael Berlemann & Beate Henschel & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2005. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen und Ostdeutschland 2005/2006," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(04), pages 3-10, August.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Aggregate production and price level: Volume calculations in comparison," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(14), pages 13-18, July.
    8. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Previous year price basis and chain linking in the National Accounts: the most important features of the new volume calculation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(15), pages 29-35, August.
    9. Wolf-Dietmar Speich, 2006. "Revision 2005 in den regionalen Gesamtrechnungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages .33-41, April.
    10. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Price-adjusted GDP and the practice followed by the Institutes in the Joint Economic Analysis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 15-18, May.
    11. Wolf-Dietmar Speich, 2006. "Revision 2005 in den regionalen Gesamtrechnungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages 33-41, 04.
    12. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Economic activity 2005: forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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