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Economic activity 2005: forecasting and reality

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

For many years the Ifo Institute has critically examined the quality of its own business cycle forecasting and discussesdthe reasons for the differences between forecasting and reality. In 2005 the Ifo Institute correctly forecasted the basic business trend in Germany. As expected, in the course of the business cycle an accelerated growth of total output occurred, and also the slow-down when looking at the year as a whole was correctly forecasted in the basic trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Economic activity 2005: forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:59:y:2006:i:02:p:37-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2005. "The State of the World Economy and the German Economy in Spring 2005," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(08), pages 03-57, April.
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    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "The introduction of the previous-year price basis in German National Accounts: Consequences for business-cycle analysis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, March.
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    11. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Business forecasts and forecasting risks," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
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    14. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Economy economic activity 2006: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(02), pages 23-28, January.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2012. "Economic Situation 2011: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(02), pages 22-27, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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