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Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

Um bei Konjunkturanalysen Aufschluss über konjunkturelle Schwankungen erlangen zu können, werden in der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung Veränderungsraten wie Jahresdurchschnittsraten, laufende (Jahres-) Raten etc. in die Datenerfassung und -aufbereitung miteinbezogen. In welchem Masse die genannten vorgegebenen Konjunkturindikatoren das konjunkturelle Geschehen tatsächlich wiedergeben, untersucht der vorliegende Bericht.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:52:y:1999:i:27:p:11-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2000:i::p:10-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Willi Leibfritz & Erich Langmantel & Wolfgang Meister & Barbara Schaden & Ulrich Scholten & Martin Werding, 2000. "Evaluierung des Steuerreformvorschlags der CDU/CSU vor dem Hintergrund der Erfahrungen mit fundamentalen Steuerreformen im Ausland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(19-20), pages 10-25, July.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2002. "Die rote Laterne - Die Gründe für Deutschlands Wachstumsschwäche und die notwendigen Reformen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(23), pages 3-32, December.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Willi Leibfritz & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 1999. "ifo Vorschlag zur Steuerreform," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(18), pages 03-18, October.
    5. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2002:i::p:03-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hans-Werner Sinn & Christian Holzner & Wolfgang Meister & Wolfgang Ochel & Martin Werding, 2002. "Aktivierende Sozialhilfe - Ein Weg zu mehr Beschäftigung und Wachstum," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(09), pages 03-52, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2002: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2003: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(03), pages 26-29, February.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Verbraucherpreisentwicklung nach der Euro-Bargeldeinführung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(05), pages 54-56, March.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Vorjahrespreisbasis und Chain-Linking in den VGR: Das Wichtigste der neuen Volumenrechnung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(15), pages 29-35, August.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2007: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(03), pages 21-26, February.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2005: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    8. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    9. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, April.
    10. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2006: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(02), pages 23-28, January.
    11. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    12. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Deutsche Konjunktur 2001 - Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(02), pages 32-34, January.
    13. Edda Müller, 2003. "Verbraucherschutz und Wettbewerb," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 3-6, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deutschland; Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut; Informationseffizienz; Zeitreihenanalyse;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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