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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2007: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen und diskutiert die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit. Im Jahr 2007 ist die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vom ifo Institut von der Grundtendenz her zutreffend prognostiziert worden. Der seit 2005 laufende Aufschwung hat sich 2007 trotz der massiven Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer fortgesetzt. Dabei ist die Dynamik des Aufschwungs in der ifo-Dezemberprognose 2006 sogar noch etwas unterschätzt worden. Der private Konsum ist im Jahresdurchschnitt 2007 allerdings nicht gestiegen - wie im Dezember 2006 prognostiziert -, sondern gesunken.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2007: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(03), pages 21-26, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:03:p:21-26
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifosd_2008_3_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Bakhshi & G. Kapetanios & T. Yates, 2005. "Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 539-553, October.
    2. Nordhaus, William D, 1987. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Prognosverfahren; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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