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Economic Situation 2017: Forecast and Reality

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

The ifo Institute has been critically examining the quality of its own economic forecasts for many years. In this article the ifo Economic Forecast of December 2016 for the year 2017 is discussed in the context of the recently published results of Germany's National Accounts. The article also looks at the institute's forecasting quality on a long-term average basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2018. "Economic Situation 2017: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(03), pages 35-42, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:03:p:35-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    2. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Oliver Hülsewig & Klaus Abberger & Teresa Buchen & Christian Breuer & Steffen Elstner & Steffen Henzel & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Johannes Mayr & Wolfg, 2009. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2010 - The Lacklustre German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(24), pages 17-64, December.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Economic Activity in 2016: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger & Tim Oliver Berg & Teresa Buchen & Christian Breuer & Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Jo, 2010. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2011: Upswing continues at a slower pace," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(24), pages 18-68, December.
    5. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2017:i:17:p:45-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    7. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    8. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    9. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & S. Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & F, 2017. "ifo Economic Forecast 2017/2018: Germany’s Economy Is Strong and Stable," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(12), pages 30-83, June.
    10. Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif, 2016. "A Flash Estimate of Private Consumption in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(21), pages 36-41, November.
    11. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Wolfgang Meister & Johanna Garn, 2014. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2014/2015: German Upturn Continues," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(13), pages 17-58, July.
    12. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Johanna Garnitz & Christian Grimme & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Reif & Felix Schröter &, 2015. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2015/2017: Modest Upswing Continues," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(24), pages 23-66, December.
    13. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ina Becker & Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Erich Langmantel & Johannes Mayr & Wolfgang Meister & Monika Ruschinski & Dirk Ulbricht & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2006/2007: The upswing continues," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(12), pages 19-54, June.
    14. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    15. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
    16. Annette Weichselberger, 2017. "German Manufacturing: Companies Keener to Invest in 2017," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(17), pages 45-49, September.
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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Business Cycle 2018: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.

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