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Ifo Economic Forecast 2015/2017: Modest Upswing Continues

Author

Listed:
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Tim Oliver Berg
  • Christian Breuer
  • Johanna Garnitz
  • Christian Grimme
  • Atanas Hristov
  • Nikolay Hristov
  • Wolfgang Meister
  • Magnus Reif
  • Felix Schröter
  • Andreas Steiner
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Anna Wolf

Abstract

On 9 December 2015 the Ifo Institute presented its economic forecast for the years 2015, 2016 and 2017. The modest upturn seen in the German economy for some time is expected to continue. Real gross domestic product will increase by 1.7% this year, and by 1.9% in 2016. The growth rate is subsequently expected to fall to 1.7% in 2017. Private consumption will continue to drive the upswing, which will be boosted by a renewed drop in oil prices, higher earnings and transfers and a lighter tax and social charges burden on households. In addition, expansive stimuli from fiscal and social policy will be stronger, not least due to far higher government expenditure on consumption and transfers related to the influx of refugees. While construction investment is expected to grow sharply over the forecasting period, equipment investment will only see a modest increase, despite favourable financing conditions. Since imports are expected to rise more than exports due to forecasts of strong domestic demand, there will be almost no stimuli from foreign trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Johanna Garnitz & Christian Grimme & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Reif & Felix Schröter &, 2015. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2015/2017: Modest Upswing Continues," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(24), pages 23-66, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:24:p:23-66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    2. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    3. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr & Panu Poutvaara, 2015. "Opportunities for Refugees in the German Labour Market: Results of a Corporate Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(22), pages 22-25, November.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    5. C. Alan Garner, 2002. "Consumer confidence after September 11," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 87(Q II).
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    10. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    11. Berg Tim Oliver, 2017. "Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
    12. Christian Breuer, 2015. "Additional Revenues Despite Tax Cuts – On the Results of the Tax Revenue Estimates of November 2015," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(22), pages 44-47, November.
    13. Christian Grimme & Claire Thürwächter, 2015. "The Impact of Exchange Rates on German Exports – Simulations with Error Correction Models," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(20), pages 35-38, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2018. "Economic Situation 2017: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(03), pages 35-42, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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