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Ifo Economic Forecast 2014/2015: German Upturn Continues

Author

Listed:
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Tim Oliver Berg
  • Christian Breuer
  • Christian Grimme
  • Steffen Henzel
  • Atanas Hristov
  • Nikolay Hristov
  • Michael Kleemann
  • Wolfgang Meister
  • Johanna Garnitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Elisabeth Wieland
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Anna Wolf

Abstract

Worldwide economic growth picked up slightly in summer 2013. This was mainly due to developments in advanced economies. The recoveries in the USA, Britain and Japan gained impetus, while the euro area emerged from a recession that lasted almost two years. Although emerging economies posted higher growth rates than advanced economies, the economic dynamic nevertheless remained relatively weak by historical standards. All in all, aggregate world economic production is expected to increase by 2.9% this year and 3.3% next year. A key risk for the world economy remains the fragile situation in the euro area. Despite the reform measures recently introduced by many member states, several of these countries are still too expensive to be competitive. As in recent years, economic upheavals could recur, just as they have over the past three years. The economic upturn in Germany continues. Real domestic product is expected to increase by 2.0% this year and by 2.2% in 2014. As in past years, the upturn will be driven by the domestic economy. Investments in new equipment will grow at a faster pace, the high production capacity utilisation rates call for investment in replacement and expansion. Construction investment will also continue to increase further. Private consumption is also expected to increase at the same pace as rising real income.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Wolfgang Meister & Johanna Garn, 2014. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2014/2015: German Upturn Continues," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(13), pages 17-58, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:13:p:17-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Business Cycle 2018: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2018. "Economic Situation 2017: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(03), pages 35-42, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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