IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v70y2017i02p72-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2016: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen. In dem Beitrag wird die ifo Prognose vom Dezember 2015 für das vergangene Jahr vor dem Hintergrund der jüngst veröffentlichten Ergebnisse der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen für 2016 diskutiert. Zudem wird auf die Prognosequalität des Instituts im langjährigen Durchschnitt eingegangen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2016: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:02:p:72-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/sd-2017-02-nierhaus-prognosewert-2017-01-26.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    2. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    3. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    4. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif, 2016. "Eine Flash-Schätzung für die privaten Konsumausgaben in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(21), pages 36-41, November.
    6. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 465-465.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger, 2015. "ifo Konjunkturampel revisited," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(05), pages 27-32, March.
    8. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:03:p:35-42 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:02:p:72-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.