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Business Cycle 2013: Forecast and Reality

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

The Ifo Institute has critically examined the quality of its own business surveys for years. This article discusses discrepancies between forecasts and reality in 2013. The main reason for the forecasting error of 0.3 percentage points was that the statistical overhang at the end of 2012 was overestimated by exactly this amount.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2014. "Business Cycle 2013: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(02), pages 41-46, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:02:p:41-46
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2014_02_6.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman O. Stekler, 2013. "Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(2), pages 235-253, May.
    2. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    3. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Michael Weber, 2014. "Der Blick in die Glaskugel wird schärfer: EineEvaluation der Treffsicherheit der ifo DresdenKonjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(03), pages 45-46, June.
    2. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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