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Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Mit Konjunkturprognosen wird auf hochaggregierter Ebene die Entwicklung der Wirtschaft im jeweils laufenden und im darauffolgenden Jahr vorausgeschätzt. Im Mittelpunkt stehen Aussagen über Tempoänderungen und Wendepunkte von makroökonomischen Variablen im zyklischen Wirtschaftsgeschehen. Konjunkturzyklen sind Schwankungen des Auslastungsgrades des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotenzials (Wachstumszyklus). Jeder Zyklus besteht aus einer Aufschwungs- und einer Abschwungsphase, wobei die einzelnen Phasen durch untere bzw. obere Wendepunkte miteinander verbunden sind. Aufschwungsphasen sind dadurch gekennzeichnet, dass die laufende Wachstumsrate der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion gegenüber der Vorperiode über der des Produktionspotenzials liegt (zunehmende Kapazitätsauslastung), Abschwungsphasen umfassen sowohl Phasen mit absolut sinkender Produktionstätigkeit als auch Phasen mit – gemessen an der Potenzialrate – unterdurchschnittlich zunehmender Produktionstätigkeit (abnehmende Kapazitätsauslastung). Obere Wendepunkte befinden sich dort, wo die Kapazitätsauslastung ein lokales Maximum hat, untere Wendepunkte dort, wo der Auslastungsgrad ein lokales Minimum aufweist. Anders als im klassischen Konjunkturzyklus, der als Schwankungen des Niveaus der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion definiert ist, beginnen im Wachstumszyklus Abschwungsphasen nicht erst dann, wenn die Wachstumsrate negativ ist, sondern wenn die Rate unter die Rate des Potenzialwachstums fällt. Interpretiert man den Trendwert der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion als eine nichtstrukturelle Schätzung des Produktionspotenzials, so lässt sich die Position im Wachstu mszyklus äquivalent an der Abweichung der Produktion vom Trend bestimmen. Die Wendepunkte werden nunmehr durch die maximalen (absoluten) Abstände der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion vom Trend definiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2012. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(05), pages 29-37, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:19:y:2012:i:05:p:29-37
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wirtschaftsprognose; Konjunkturindikator; Prognoseverfahren;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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