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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2014: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen. Im folgenden Beitrag werden für das abgelaufene Jahr die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit diskutiert. Zudem wird auf die Prognosequalität im langjährigen Durchschnitt eingegangen. Im Verlauf des vergangenen Jahres haben sich gewichtige Rahmenbedingungen geändert, die die wirtschaftliche Aktivität per saldo dämpften. Angesichts der asymmetrisch verteilten Wirkung der Ereignisse haben nahezu alle professionellen Prognostiker im Herbst 2013 die tatsächliche BIP-Entwicklung 2014 überschätzt.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2015. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2014: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), pages 43-49, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:02:p:43-49
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2015_02_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
    3. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    4. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    5. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 465-465.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftskonjunktur;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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