IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v68y2015i02p43-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2014: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen. Im folgenden Beitrag werden für das abgelaufene Jahr die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit diskutiert. Zudem wird auf die Prognosequalität im langjährigen Durchschnitt eingegangen. Im Verlauf des vergangenen Jahres haben sich gewichtige Rahmenbedingungen geändert, die die wirtschaftliche Aktivität per saldo dämpften. Angesichts der asymmetrisch verteilten Wirkung der Ereignisse haben nahezu alle professionellen Prognostiker im Herbst 2013 die tatsächliche BIP-Entwicklung 2014 überschätzt.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2015. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2014: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), pages 43-49, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:02:p:43-49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2015_02_5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    2. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    3. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
    5. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 465-465.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2016: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2016. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2015: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(03), pages 34-40, February.
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2018: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.
    9. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    10. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    11. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2020. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2019: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 51-57, January.
    12. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2018. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2017: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(03), pages 35-42, February.
    13. Lee, Yun Shin & Scholtes, Stefan, 2014. "Empirical prediction intervals revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 217-234.
    14. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier & Kim, Jae, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on Prediction Intervals," MPRA Paper 70143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Dhaoui, Iyad, 2015. "Climat des Affaires et Compétitivité de l’Entreprise Tunisienne Après la Révolution : Analyses et Perspectives [Business Climate and Competitiveness of the Tunisian Enterprise After the Revolution:," MPRA Paper 87331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2005. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for power-transformed time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 219-235.
    17. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "Kernel smoothed prediction intervals for ARMA models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-15, January.
    18. Roberto Buizza & James W. Taylor, 2004. "A comparison of temperature density forecasts from GARCH and atmospheric models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 337-355.
    19. James W. Taylor & Derek W. Bunn, 1999. "A Quantile Regression Approach to Generating Prediction Intervals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 225-237, February.
    20. Melard, G. & Pasteels, J. -M., 2000. "Automatic ARIMA modeling including interventions, using time series expert software," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 497-508.
    21. Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
    22. Karamaziotis, Panagiotis I. & Raptis, Achilleas & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Litsiou, Konstantia & Assimakopoulos, Vassilis, 2020. "An empirical investigation of water consumption forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 588-606.
    23. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375.
    24. Diego Fresoli, 2022. "Bootstrap VAR forecasts: The effect of model uncertainties," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 279-293, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftskonjunktur;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:02:p:43-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.