Beware of econometricians bearing estimates: Policy analysis in a “unit root” world
Current statistical approaches to modeling many economic relationships are grounded in traditional ideas of deterministic trends. Some of the failures of these approaches are due to inappropriate models using time series with “unit roots.” After a shock, unit root processes do not revert to some time trend, but rather can drift up or down without bounds. A “random walk” is a well-known example of a unit root process. The purpose of this paper is to explain the importance of unit root processes to policy analysts who make or rely upon econometric models using time series dat. In particular, the presence of unit root processes in GNP, energy and electricity consumption exports, imports, and other variables suggests that modifications to the way economic relationships are estimated may be necessary. Once these modifications are made, many important parameters turn out to be much different, with substantive implications for both forecasting and policy.
Volume (Year): 10 (1991)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/34787/home|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981.
"Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series,"
Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
- Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
- Perron, P., 1986. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach," Cahiers de recherche 8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Long-Run Effects of the Strong Dollar," NBER Chapters,in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry, pages 277-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Mankiw, Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," Scholarly Articles 3122545, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 117-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Meese, Richard, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt18n4c5f6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Richard Meese., 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable," Economics Working Papers 8738, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 2249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 603-619.
- Richard Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1989. "An empirical assessment of non-linearities in models of exchange rate determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 367, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
- Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," NBER Working Papers 2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Galbraith, John W & Dolado, Juan, 1990. "Dynamic Specification and Linear Transformations of the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 95-104, February.
- Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Exchange Rates and Import Prices in the United States: A Varying-Parameter Estimation of Exchange-Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 305-315, July.
- Jaime R. Marquez, 1988. "The dynamics of uncertainty or the uncertainty of dynamics: stochastic J-curves," International Finance Discussion Papers 335, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chinn, Menzie David, 1991. "Some linear and nonlinear thoughts on exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 214-230, June.
- Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "Off the Mark: Lessons for Exchange Rate Modelling," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 443-457, September.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
- Hunt, Lester & Manning, Neil, 1989. "Energy Price- and Income-Elasticities of Demand: Some Estimates for the UK Using the Cointegration Procedure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 183-193, May.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Meese, Richard & Geweke, John, 1984. "A Comparison of Autoregressive Univariate Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, July.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
- William R. Melick, 1990. "Estimating pass-through: structure and stability," International Finance Discussion Papers 387, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)