IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v67y2014i17p43-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen

Author

Listed:
  • Steffen Henzel
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Wie alle Vorhersagen weichen auch die ifo Konjunkturprognosen in gewissem Umfang von den später veröffentlichten amtlichen Ergebnissen ab. Um die größtmögliche Transparenz zu gewährleisten, werden hier die ifo Konjunkturprognosen für das reale BIP in Deutschland seit 1991 dokumentiert und evaluiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:17:p:43-45
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2014_17_6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2012: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(02), pages 30-33, January.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2009: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(02), pages 30-33, January.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Konjunkturprognosen und Prognoserisiko," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2012. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2011: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(02), pages 22-27, January.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2010: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(02), pages 22-25, February.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2014. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2013: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(02), pages 41-46, January.
    8. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2008: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(03), pages 21-25, February.
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Deutsche Konjunktur 2001 - Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(02), pages 32-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Korbinian Breitrainer & Atanas Hristov, 2015. "Evaluation des Eurozone Economic Outlook," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(24), pages 67-73, December.
    2. Franziska Fobbe & Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Elektromotoren, Energieversorgung und Erziehung: Die Güte der entstehungsseitigen ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(12), pages 58-63, June.
    3. Döhrn, Roland, 2015. "Prognosen für 2015 im Rückblick," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(4), pages 35-46.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen – ein Vergleich mit den Prognosen von Consensus Economics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(22), pages 26-28, November.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Michael Weber, 2016. "Mehr als Kaffeesatzleserei: Eine Evaluation der ifo Prognosen zur Erwerbstätigkeit in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(02), pages 22-26, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Lehmann & Michael Weber, 2014. "Der Blick in die Glaskugel wird schärfer: EineEvaluation der Treffsicherheit der ifo DresdenKonjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(03), pages 45-46, June.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Deutsche Konjunktur 2001 - Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(02), pages 32-34, January.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2003: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(03), pages 26-29, February.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2002: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
    6. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2005: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Prognoseverfahren; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:17:p:43-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.