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Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition

  • Hans Christian Müller-Dröge
  • Tara M. Sinclair
  • H.O. Stekler

In this paper we present an evaluation of forecasts of a vector of variables of the German economy made by different institutions. Our method permits one to evaluate the forecasts for each year and then if one is interested to combine the years. We use our method to determine an overall winner for a forecasting competition across twenty-five different institutions for a single time period using a vector of eight key economic variables. Typically forecasting competitions are judged on a variable-by-variable basis, but our methodology allows us to determine how each competitor performed overall. We find that the Bundesbank was the overall winner for 2013.

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File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2014-07/55_2014_muller-droge_sinclair_stekleer.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2014-55.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-55
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  1. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
  2. Kajal Lahiri & Antony Davies & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts," Discussion Papers 10-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  3. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman O. Stekler, 2013. "Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(2), pages 235-253, 05.
  4. Robert Eisenbeis & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2002. "Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach," Working Paper 2002-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Andy Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 17-31.
  6. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-18.
  7. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers 2011-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Dec 2011.
  8. Ulrich K. Müller & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2006. "Are forecasters reluctant to revise their predictions? Some German evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 401-413.
  9. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
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