Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function
Based on annual data for growth and inflation forecasts for Germany covering the time span from 1970 to 2007 and up to 17 different forecasts per year, we test for a possible asymmetry of the forecasters' loss function and estimate the degree of asymmetry for each forecasting institution using the approach of Elliot et al. (2005). Furthermore, we test for the rationality of the forecasts under the assumption of a possibly asymmetric loss function and for the features of an optimal forecast under the assumption of a generalized loss function. We find evidence for the existence of an asymmetric loss function of German forecasters only in case of pooled data and a quad-quad loss function. We cannot reject the hypothesis of rationality of the growth forecasts based on data for single institutions, but based on a pooled data set. The rationality of inflation forecasts frequently is rejected in case of single institutions and also for pooled data.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.chEmail:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clive W.J. Granger, 1999. "Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 161-173.
- Ager, Philipp & Kappler, Marcus & Osterloh, Steffen, 2007.
"The Accuracy and Efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A Further Application and Extension of the Pooled Approach,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
07-058, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009. "The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Testing Forecast Optimality Under Unknown Loss," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1172-1184, December.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, June.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
- Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997.
"Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December.
- Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1994. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," NBER Technical Working Papers 0167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," CARESS Working Papres 97-20, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss," Working Papers 97-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1999.
"Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC,"
Economics Working Papers
eco99/22, European University Institute.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S20-S36.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC," CEPR Discussion Papers 2206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hansen, Bruce E & West, Kenneth D, 2002. "Generalized Method of Moments and Macroeconomics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 460-69, October.
- George A. Christodoulakis & Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis, 2008. "An assessment of the EU growth forecasts under asymmetric preferences," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 483-492.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008.
"Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society.
- Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
- G. A. Christodoulakis & E. C. Mamatzakis, 2009. "Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 583-606.
- David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
- Steffen Osterloh, 2008.
"Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts,"
Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik),
Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57.
- Osterloh, Steffen, 2006. "Accuracy and properties of German business cycle forecasts," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-87, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2008. "Are They Really Rational? Assessing Professional Macro-Economic Forecasts from the G7-Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.