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Oil price forecasting under asymmetric loss

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
  • Stadtmann, Georg

Abstract

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price of oil tended to be larger than the loss they incurred when their forecast fell short of the price of oil. Accounting for the asymmetry of the loss function does not necessarily make forecasts look rational.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Oil price forecasting under asymmetric loss," Discussion Papers 314, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:314
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo Cortazar & Cristobal Millard & Hector Ortega & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2016. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices and Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 22991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mamatzakis, E. & Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A., 2014. "Testing the rationality of DOE's energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 567-575.
    3. Shangkun Deng & Akito Sakurai, 2014. "Crude Oil Spot Price Forecasting Based on Multiple Crude Oil Markets and Timeframes," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(5), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; forecasting; loss function; rationality of forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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