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The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

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  • Auffhammer, Maximilian

Abstract

The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and gas prices as well as natural gas consumption, GDP and energy intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2005. "The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2ts415ts, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt2ts415ts
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Shlyakhter, Alexander I. & Kammen, Daniel M. & Broido, Claire L. & Wilson, Richard, 1994. "Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data : The US energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 119-130, February.
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