Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.
Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2007.
"The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 102-121, May.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2005. "The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss," CUDARE Working Paper Series 1009, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Kumar, Ujjwal & Jain, V.K., 2010. "Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1709-1716.
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