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Modelling the Errors of EIA's Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

Author

Listed:
  • Gholam Hossein Hasantash

    (Faculty Member, Institute for International Energy Studies (IIES))

  • Hamidreza Mostafaei

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Shahid Rajaei Teacher Training University, Tehran)

  • Shaghayegh Kordnoori

    (MSc of Statistics & Statistics Expert of Research Institute for ICT,Tehran, Iran.)

Abstract

Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

Suggested Citation

  • Gholam Hossein Hasantash & Hamidreza Mostafaei & Shaghayegh Kordnoori, 2012. "Modelling the Errors of EIA's Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 312-319.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-03-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kumar, Ujjwal & Jain, V.K., 2010. "Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1709-1716.
    2. Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2007. "The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 102-121, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ying-Fang Huang & Chia-Nan Wang & Hoang-Sa Dang & Shun-Te Lai, 2015. "Predicting the Trend of Taiwan’s Electronic Paper Industry by an Effective Combined Grey Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-20, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Grey theory; Grey Markov model; EIA; Oil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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