On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note
Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. [Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., Timmermann, A., 2005. Estimation and testing of forecast rationality under flexible loss. Review of Economic Studies 72, 1107–1125], we studied whether the inflation and output growth projections published by the Bank of Canada are consistent with an asymmetric loss function. Current-year projections provide no signs of asymmetry, but next-year projections do. The hypothesis of rationality of the projections can be rejected under symmetric loss, but not under asymmetric loss.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, 07.
- Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
- Paolo Surico, 2004.
"Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy,"
- Paolo Surico, 2008. "Measuring the Time Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 22-38, 02.
- Surico, Paolo, 2003. "Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0291, European Central Bank.
- Paolo Surico, 2004. "Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2007.
"The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 102-121, May.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2005. "The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss," CUDARE Working Paper Series 1009, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005.
"Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?,"
CAMA Working Papers
2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
- Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society.
- Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
- Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2008.
"Are Central Bank Preferences Asymmetric? A Comment,"
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 119-126, 02.
- Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008. "Are Central Bank Preferences Asymmetric? A Comment," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011.
"The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank,"
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal,
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 5, pages 1-36.
- Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009.
"Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function,"
KOF Working papers
09-237, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-18.
- Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200905, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- repec:sae:niesru:v:167:y::i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003.
" Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-85, October.
- Francisco Javier Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," IMF Working Papers 01/161, International Monetary Fund.
- Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 2001-04, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco .J., 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 2001-04, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0106, Banco de Espa�a.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Testing Forecast Optimality Under Unknown Loss," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1172-1184, December.
- Tiff Macklem, 2002. "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 11-18.
- Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 354-367.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008.
"The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 230-35, May.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?," NBER Working Papers 13751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá, 2002.
"A Prudent Central Banker,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 7.
- Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2001. "A Prudent Central Banker," Cahiers de recherche 2001-07, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2001. "A Prudent Central Banker," Cahiers de recherche 2001-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
- G. A. Christodoulakis & E. C. Mamatzakis, 2009. "Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 583-606.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:155-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.