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Evaluating rationality of level and growth rate forecasts of direct tax revenues under flexible loss function: Evidence from Swiss cantons

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  • Chatagny, Florian
  • Siliverstovs, Boriss

Abstract

We explore the rationality of tax revenue forecasts in Swiss cantons under asymmetric loss functions. We find evidence of asymmetric losses for the level forecasts but not for growth rates. Allowing for asymmetric losses alters the outcome of rationality tests for the level forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatagny, Florian & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2015. "Evaluating rationality of level and growth rate forecasts of direct tax revenues under flexible loss function: Evidence from Swiss cantons," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 65-68.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:134:y:2015:i:c:p:65-68
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.06.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
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    5. Chatagny, Florian, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
    6. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
    7. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-70.
    8. Auerbach, Alan J., 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(4), pages 765-782, December.
    9. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 155-159.
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    Cited by:

    1. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    2. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    3. Madina Serikova & Lyazzat Sembiyeva & Kuralay Balginova & Gulzhan Alina & Aliya Shakharova & Anar Kurmanalina, 2020. "Tax revenues estimation and forecast for state tax audit," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(3), pages 2419-2435, March.
    4. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax revenue forecasts; Rationality tests; Asymmetric loss function; Swiss cantons;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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