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Are the Treasury's Tax Revenue Forecasts Rational?

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  • Reilly, Barry
  • Witt, Robert

Abstract

This paper assesses the Treasury's tax revenue forecasts using the theory and econometric methods of rational expectations. Three categories of taxes are examined--income tax, customs and excise, and corporation tax. The hypotheses of weak and strong rationality are subjected to test in all three categories and only the income tax forecasts could be considered weakly rational. However, this set of forecasts is not found to be strongly rational. Overall, the Treasury forecasters are seen to perform poorly and this is particularly the case for the corporation tax category. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Reilly, Barry & Witt, Robert, 1992. "Are the Treasury's Tax Revenue Forecasts Rational?," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(4), pages 390-402, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:60:y:1992:i:4:p:390-402
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    Cited by:

    1. Chatagny, Florian & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2015. "Evaluating rationality of level and growth rate forecasts of direct tax revenues under flexible loss function: Evidence from Swiss cantons," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 65-68.

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