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The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons

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  • Florian Chatagny
  • Nils Soguel

Abstract

This study is an empirical analysis of the impact of direct tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal deficits. Using panel data from 26 Swiss cantons between 1980 and 2002, we estimate a single equation model on the fiscal balance, as well as a simultaneous equation model on revenue and expenditure.We use new data on budgeted and actual tax revenue to show that underestimating tax revenue significantly reduces fiscal deficits. Furthermore, we show that this effect is channeled through decreased expenditure. The effects of over and underestimation turn out to be symmetric.
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  • Florian Chatagny & Nils Soguel, 2012. "The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 319-337, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:319-337
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-011-9189-5
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    Cited by:

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    2. Guido Baldi, 2016. "Fiscal policy rules, budget deficits, and forecasting biases," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 185-194, April.
    3. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    4. Chatagny, Florian, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
    5. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    6. João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 84-116, March.
    7. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2019. "The impact of forecast errors on fiscal planning and debt accumulation," Kiel Working Papers 2123, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Boukari, Mamadou & Veiga, Francisco José, 2018. "Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1030-1045.
    9. Bernardino Benito & Francisco Bastida & Cristina Vicente, 2013. "Creating Room for Manoeuvre: a Strategy to Generate Political Budget Cycles under Fiscal Rules," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 467-496, November.
    10. Breuer Christian, 2015. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
    11. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
    12. Maxime Clémenceau & Nils Soguel, 2018. "How does depreciations management affect subsequent fiscal performance? The case of the Swiss cantons," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Sanjeev Gupta & João T Jalles & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Michela Schena, 2018. "Planned fiscal adjustments: Do governments fulfil their commitments?," European Union Politics, , vol. 19(3), pages 383-407, September.
    14. Simon Luechinger & Christoph Schaltegger, 2013. "Fiscal rules, budget deficits and budget projections," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(5), pages 785-807, October.
    15. Bernardino Benito & María-Dolores Guillamón & Francisco Bastida, 2015. "Budget Forecast Deviations in Municipal Governments: Determinants and Implications," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 25(1), pages 45-70, March.
    16. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    17. Bohn, Frank & Veiga, Francisco José, 2021. "Political forecast cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal deficits; Tax revenue budgeting errors; Swiss cantons; Simultaneous equations model with panel data; C12; C33; H71; H72;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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