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An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process

Author

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  • Bryan Campbell
  • Eric Ghysels

Abstract

This paper provides a statistical analysis of the forecasts of a significant number of expenditure and revenue components of the federal budget provided each year by the Department of Finance. The sample available for such an investigation is limited, and the authors describe an easily applied non-parametric testing methodology that is more appropriate than the usual regression-based approach in small samples. The reliability and relative power of the various non-parametric tests are illustrated in a series of simulations. Applying these tests to the fiscal forecasts, they find that there is little cause to be concerned with the forecast performance of the Department of Finance over the last seventeen years.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:30:y:1997:i:3:p:553-76
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    1. Plesko, George A., 1988. "The Accuracy of Government Forecasts and Budget Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 41(4), pages 483-501, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Favard, Pascal & Gaudet, Gerard & Moreaux, Michel, 1998. "On the Optimal Order of Natural Resource Use When the Capacity of the Inexhaustible Substitute Is Limited," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 153-170, May.
    3. Chatagny, Florian, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
    4. Friedrich Heinemann, 2006. "Planning or Propaganda? An Evaluation of Germany's Medium-term Budgetary Planning," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(4), pages 551-578, December.
    5. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    6. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
    7. Mikhail Golosov & John R King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 2002/236, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Touhami, A. & Martens, A., 1996. "Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco," Cahiers de recherche 9621, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    9. Chatagny, Florian & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2015. "Evaluating rationality of level and growth rate forecasts of direct tax revenues under flexible loss function: Evidence from Swiss cantons," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 65-68.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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