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Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco

  • Touhami, A.
  • Martens, A.
Registered author(s):

    With the help of an illustrative general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Moroccan Economy, we test for the significance of simulation results in the case where the exact macromesure is not known with certainty. This is done by computing lower and upper bounds for the simulation resukts, given a priori probabilities attached to three possible closures (Classical, Johansen, Keynesian). Our Conclusion is that, when there is uncertainty on closures several endogenous changes lack significance, which, in turn, limit the use of the model for policy prescriptions.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/2045
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    Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9621.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: 1996
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9621
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    1. Kollmann, R., 1995. "Mark Up Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing and Trade: New Empirical Evidence Based on a Model of Optimal Storage," Cahiers de recherche 9526, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    2. Daniel Parent, 1995. "Wages and Mobility: The Impact of Employer-Provided Training," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-27, CIRANO.
    3. Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-08, CIRANO.
    4. Dionne, Georges & Gagne, Robert & Vanasse, Charles, 1998. "Inferring technological parameters from incomplete panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 303-327, September.
    5. Ghysels, E. & Khalaf, L. & Vodounou, C., 1995. "Simulation Based Inference in Moving Average Models," Cahiers de recherche 9513, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    6. Ghysels, E. & Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 1995. "Market Time and Asset Price Movements: Theory and Estimation," Cahiers de recherche 9536, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    7. Parent, D., 1995. "Industry-Specific Capiatl and the Wage Profile: Evidence from the NLSY and the PSID," Cahiers de recherche 9508, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    8. Dudley, L., 1996. "Communication and Economic Growth," Cahiers de recherche 9620, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    9. Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143.
    10. Marcel Boyer & Jean-Jacques Laffont, 1995. "Environmental Protection, Producer Insolvency and Lender Liability," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-50, CIRANO.
    11. Bronsard, C. & Michel, P. & Salvas-Bronsard, L., 1995. "Singular Demand Systems as an Intrument of Scientific Discovery," Cahiers de recherche 9532, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    12. Eric Ghysels & Alain Guay & Alastair Hall, 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-20, CIRANO.
    13. Ghysels, E. & Granger, C.W.J. & Siklos, P.L., 1995. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data Filtring Process," Cahiers de recherche 9517, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    14. Boyer, M. & Laffont, J.J., 1995. "Environmental Risks and Bank Liability," Cahiers de recherche 9501, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    15. Margolis, D..N., 1995. "Firm Heterogeneity and Worker Self-Selection Bias Estimated Returns to Seniority," Cahiers de recherche 9502, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    16. Dionne, G. & Aris, M. & Guillen, M., 1995. "On the Repayment of Personal Loans Under Asymmetrical Information: a Count Data Model Approach," Cahiers de recherche 9528, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    17. Marcel Boyer & Philippe Mahenc & Michel Moreaux, 1995. "Entry Blockading Locations," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-51, CIRANO.
    18. Dionne, G. & Mounsif, T., 1996. "Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: The Newsboy Poblem Revidited," Papers 9622, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
    19. Sprumont, Y., 1995. "An Axiomatization of the Pazner-Schmeidler Rules in Large Fair Division Problems," Cahiers de recherche 9512, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    20. Abowd, J.M. & Kramarz, F. & Margolis, D.N., 1995. "High-Wage Workers and High-Wage Firms," Cahiers de recherche 9503, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    21. Kiviet, Jan F. & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 325-353, October.
    22. Ghysels, E., 1995. "On Stable Factor Structurs in the Pricing of Risk," Cahiers de recherche 9525, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    23. Kollmann, R., 1996. "The Exchange rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities : A Quantitative Investigation," Discussion Paper 1996-67, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    24. Ng, Serena & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "The Risky Spread, Investment, and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence on the Role of Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 375-83, August.
    25. De Lemos Grandmont, R., 1995. "Multivariate Cointegration in the Presence of Structural Breaks: the Case of Money Demand in Mexico," Cahiers de recherche 9554, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    26. Dionne, G. & Fombaron, N., 1995. "Non-Convexities and Efficiency of Equilibria in Insurance Markets with Asymmetric Information," Cahiers de recherche 9531, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    27. Dionne, G. & Fluet, C., 1995. "Incentives in Multi-Period Regulation and Procurement : A Graphical Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 9533, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    28. Ng, S., 1995. "Testing for Homogeneity in Demand Systems when the Regressors Are Non-Stationary," Cahiers de recherche 9516, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    29. Dudley, L., 1996. "The Rationality of Revolution," Cahiers de recherche 9619, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    30. Hosken, D.S. & Margolis, D.N., 1996. "The Efficiency of Collective Bargaining in Public Schools," Cahiers de recherche 9609, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    31. Fortin, N.M. & Lemieux, T., 1996. "Rank Regressions, Wage Distributions and the Gender Gap," Cahiers de recherche 9607, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    32. Arcand, Jean-Louis, 1996. "Land-Ownership, Working Capital and Agricultural Output: Egypt 1913-58," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(1), pages 92-158, March.
    33. Arcand, J.L. & Dagenais, M.G., 1995. "The Empirics of Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries: Do Errors in Variables Really Not Matter?," Cahiers de recherche 9546, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    34. Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 1995. "Government Expenditure and the Dynamics of High Inflation," Cahiers de recherche 9529, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    35. Ghysels, E. & Hall, A. & Lee, H.S., 1995. "On Periodic Structures and Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots," Cahiers de recherche 9518, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    36. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Kiviet, Jan F., 1996. "Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 39-68, January.
    37. Dufour, J.M. & Kiviet, J.F., 1995. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Cahiers de recherche 9547, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    38. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia, 1994. "Indexation Lags and Heterodox Stabilization Programs," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 35, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    39. Fortin, N.M. & Lemieux, T., 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and Gender Differences in Wage Inequality," Cahiers de recherche 9608, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    40. Marcel Boyer & Michel Moreaux, 1995. "Capacity Commitment Versus Flexibility: The Technological Choice Nexus in a Strategic Context," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-35, CIRANO.
    41. Pesaran, M.H. & Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 1995. "A Discrete-Time Version of Target Zone Models with Jumps," Cahiers de recherche 9530, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    42. Sprumont, Y., 1995. "Balanced Egalitarian Redistribution of Income," Cahiers de recherche 9521, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    43. Arcand, J.L. & Boulila, G. & Tritten, C., 1995. "Intergenerational Contracts, Remittances, and Growth," Cahiers de recherche 9543, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    44. repec:dgr:kubcen:199667 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Jean Mercenier & Philippe Michel, 1995. "Temporal aggregation in a multi-sector economy with endogenous growth," Working Papers 554, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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