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Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process?

  • Ghysels, Eric
  • Granger, Clive W J
  • Siklos, Pierre L

The authors investigate whether seasonal adjustment procedures are linear data transformations. This question was addressed by A. H. Young (1968) and is important for the estimation of regression models with seasonally adjustment data. The authors focus on the X-11 program and rely on simulation evidence, involving linear unobserved component autorgressive integrated moving average models. They define and test a set of properties for the adequacy of a linear approximation to a seasonal adjustment filter. Next, the authors study the effect of X-11 on regression statistics assessing the statistical significance between economic variables. Several empirical results involving economic data are also reported.

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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 14 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 374-86

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:14:y:1996:i:3:p:374-86
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  1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  2. Boyer, Marcel & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1994. "Environmental Risks and Bank Liability," IDEI Working Papers 45, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  6. Burridge, Peter & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1983. "Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 244, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
  8. repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Ghysels, Eric, 1997. "Seasonal Adjustment and Other Data Transformations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 410-18, October.
  10. Maravall, Agustin, 1988. "A note on minimum mean squared error estimation of signals with unit roots," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 589-593.
  11. Ghysels, E. & Lieberman, O., 1993. "Dynamic Regression and Filtered Data Series: A Laplace Approximation to the Effects of Filtering in Small Samples," Cahiers de recherche 9335, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  12. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The effect of seasonal adjustment filters on tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 57-98.
  13. Timothy C. G. Fisher & Jocelyn Martel, 1994. "The Creditors' Financial Reorganization Decision: New Evidence from Canadian Data," CIRANO Working Papers 94s-21, CIRANO.
  14. Grether, D M & Nerlove, M, 1970. "Some Properties of 'Optimal' Seasonal Adjustment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(5), pages 682-703, September.
  15. Cannings, K. & Montmarquette, C. & Mahseredjian, S., 1994. "Major Choice: Undergraduate Concentrations and the Probability of Graduation," Cahiers de recherche 9419, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  16. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
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