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Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited

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  • DIONNE, Georges
  • MOUNSIF, Tahar

Abstract

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

Suggested Citation

  • DIONNE, Georges & MOUNSIF, Tahar, 1996. "Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited," Cahiers de recherche 9610, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9610
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/2069
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    Cited by:

    1. Hau, Arthur, 2010. "Comparative statics of changes in risk on monotonically and partially responsive kinked payoffs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 267-276, February.
    2. Watt, Richard & Vázquez, Francisco J., 2017. "An analysis of insurance demand in the newsboy problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1064-1072.
    3. Hennessy, David A. & Roosen, Jutta, 1999. "Stochastic Pollution, Permits, and Merger Incentives," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 211-232, May.
    4. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Favard, Pascal & Gaudet, Gerard & Moreaux, Michel, 1998. "On the Optimal Order of Natural Resource Use When the Capacity of the Inexhaustible Substitute Is Limited," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 153-170, May.
    5. Touhami, A. & Martens, A., 1996. "Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco," Cahiers de recherche 9621, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    6. Jorge Ibarra-Salazar, 2005. "The Newsboy Model: Changes in Risk and Price," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 30(1), pages 99-109, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; investment; newsboy oblem; increase in risk; oimal cacity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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