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The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank

  • Falch, Nina Skrove
  • Nymoen, Ragnar

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside the central bank. The authors find that the superiority of the Bank's forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent econometric model. The 1-step Monetary Policy Report forecasts are preferable to the 1-step forecasts from the outside model, but for the policy relevant horizons (4 to 9 quarters ahead), the forecasts from the outsider model are preferred with a wider margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges Bank's forecasts are convincingly better than 'naïve' forecasts over the second half of our sample, but not over the whole sample, which includes a change in the mean of inflation.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2011-6.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:20116
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  1. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
  2. Q. Farooq Akram & Ragnar Nymoen, 2009. "Model Selection for Monetary Policy Analysis: How Important is Empirical Validity?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 35-68, 02.
  3. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 1999. "Econometric Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 0502, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Oct 2001.
  4. Wang, Mu-Chun, 2008. "Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, March.
  6. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank.
  7. Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
  8. Nymoen, Ragnar, 1989. " Wages and the Length of the Working Day. An Empirical Test Based on Norwegian Quarterly Manufacturing Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(3), pages 599-612.
  9. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  10. �yvind Eitrheim & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "Progress from forecast failure -- the Norwegian consumption function," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-64, June.
  11. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
  12. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
  13. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
  14. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
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