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Progress from forecast failure -- the Norwegian consumption function

Author

Listed:
  • Øyvind Eitrheim

    (Research Department, Norges Bank (The Central Bank of Norway), Norway)

  • Eilev S. Jansen

    (Research Department, Norges Bank (The Central Bank of Norway), Norway and Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Ragnar Nymoen

    (Economics Department, University of Oslo, Norway and Research Department, Norges Bank (The Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

After a forecast failure, a respecification is usually necessary to account for the data "ex post", in which case there is a gain in knowledge as a result of the forecast failure. Using Norwegian consumption as an example, we show that the financial deregulation in the mid-1980s led to forecast failure both for consumption functions (CFs) and Euler equations (EEs). We argue in the paper that such forecast failures would appear to be at odds with an underlying DGP belonging to the class of EEs, a result that also explains why progress took the form of a respecified CF where wealth plays a central role. That model is updated and is shown to have constant parameters despite huge changes in the income to wealth ratio over nine years of new data. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Øyvind Eitrheim & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "Progress from forecast failure -- the Norwegian consumption function," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-64, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:5:y:2002:i:1:p:40-64
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    Cited by:

    1. Ragnar Nymoen & Kari Pedersen & Jon Ivar Sjåberg, 2019. "Estimation of Effects of Recent Macroprudential Policies in a Sample of Advanced Open Economies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 495-517.
    3. André K. Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2015. "Did US consumers ‘save for a rainy day’ before the Great Recession?," Working Paper 2015/08, Norges Bank.
    4. Elin Halvorsen, 2003. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving. The Norwegian Experience Revisited," Discussion Papers 361, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 5, pages 1-36.
    6. Eilev Jansen, 2013. "Wealth effects on consumption in financial crises: the case of Norway," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 873-904, October.
    7. Øyvind Eitrheim & Bjarne Gulbrandsen, 2001. "A model based approach to analysing financial stability," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 311-330, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    9. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Eilev S. Jansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2021. "The Consumption Euler Equation or the Keynesian Consumption Function?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 252-272, February.
    10. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Equilibrium and auto regression models used for macroeconomic prognosis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(7), pages 70-78, July.
    11. Ioan PARTACHI & Alexandru MANOLE, 2015. "Some theoretical aspects regarding non-linear econometric models utilized in economic analyses," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(9), pages 125-128, September.
    12. Juan Nicol�s Hern�ndez, 2006. "Revisi�N De Los Determinantes Macroecon�Micos Del Consumo Total De Los Hogares Para El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 3472, Banco de la Republica.
    13. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2025. "Dynamic time series modelling and forecasting of COVID-19 in Norway," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 251-269.
    14. Solveig Erlandsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2008. "Consumption and population age structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 505-520, July.
    15. Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, January.
    16. Engelbert Stockhammer & Erik Bengtsson, 2020. "Financial effects in historic consumption and investment functions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 304-326, May.
    17. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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