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Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank

Author

Listed:
  • Iversen, Jens

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Laséen, Stefan

    (IMF)

  • Lundvall, Henrik

    (National Institute of Economic Research (NIER))

  • Söderström, Ulf

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

We evaluate forecasts made in real time to support monetary policy decisions at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) from 2007 to 2013. We compare forecasts made with a DSGE model and a BVAR model with judgemental forecasts published by the Riksbank, and we evaluate the usefulness of conditioning information for the model-based forecasts. We also study the perceived usefulness of model forecasts for central bank policymakers when producing the judgemental forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Iversen, Jens & Laséen, Stefan & Lundvall, Henrik & Söderström, Ulf, 2016. "Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank," Working Paper Series 318, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0318
    as

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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Rapporter/Working_papers/2016/rap_wp318_160323.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:679-693 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2185 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:100-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Dmitry Kreptsev & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "DSGE Model of the Russian Economy with the Banking Sector," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps27, Bank of Russia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real-time forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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