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Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU

Author

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  • Gunnar Bårdsen

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Ragnar Nymoen

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Estimates of the NAIRU are usually derived either from a Phillips curve or from a wage curve. This paper investigates the correspondence between the operational NAIRU concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage-price model. We derive the parameter restrictions that secure that correspondence. The full set of restrictions can be tested by econometric analysis of the wage-price system, and this method is demonstrated for Norwegian data. A set of necessary conditions can be tested from estimated wage curves alone. Existing international evidence from empirical wage equations are reinterpreted in light of these conditions. © 2003 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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  • Gunnar Bårdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2003. "Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1070-1075, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:85:y:2003:i:4:p:1070-1075
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    2. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2006. "U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered," Memorandum 13/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 41-68, June.
    4. Q. Farooq Akram & Ragnar Nymoen, 2009. "Model Selection for Monetary Policy Analysis: How Important is Empirical Validity?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 35-68, February.
    5. Marit Gjelsvik & Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman, 2020. "Cointegration and Structure in Norwegian Wage–Price Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-36.
    7. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge?," CPB Memorandum 224.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    9. Victor Montuenga & Inmaculada Garcia, 2011. "The wage dynamics in Spain: evidence from individual data," ERSA conference papers ersa11p585, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Sven Schreiber, 2012. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro-area countries with co-integrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1315-1335, April.
    11. Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2012. "MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2566-2582.
    12. Marc van der Steeg & Roel van Elk & Dinand Webbink, 2012. "Does intensive coaching reduce school dropout?," CPB Discussion Paper 224.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Double-Conditioned Potential Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(1), pages 32-50, March.
    14. Nymoen, Ragnar & Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind, 2012. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-263.
    15. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge? A meta analysis," CPB Discussion Paper 122, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2012. "Modelling the heuristic dynamics of the wage and price curve model of equilibrium unemployment," Discussion Papers 671, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    17. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
    18. Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, January.
    19. Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman & Bjorn Dapi, 2019. "Robustness of the Norwegian wage formation system and free EU labour movement. Evidence from wage data for natives," Discussion Papers 895, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    20. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge?," CPB Memorandum 224, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    21. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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