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Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral

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  • Dag Kolsrud
  • Ragnar Nymoen

Abstract

type="main"> We formulate a small and stylised dynamic macroeconomic model, and study how different specifications of the supply side affect the model's dynamic properties. The wage-price equilibrium-correction model (ECM) and the Phillips curve model (PCM) that both can be used to represent the supply side of a New Keynesian macro model, are synthesised in a generalised model of the wage-price spiral. We show that the choice of ECM or PCM has implications for the long-run stability of the macro model, without need of a NAIRU. We also find that the range of theoretically admissible dynamics is wide. For example, both the ECM and PCM may display endogenous cyclical fluctuations in inflation and unemployment, showing that even simple structures can give rise to complex dynamics. In practice that may entail that forecasting the effects of shocks and policy changes is difficult even in the best of circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 41-68, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:53:y:2014:i:1-2:p:41-68
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1467-8454.12020
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    1. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    3. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    4. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    5. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, September.
    6. Gunnar Bårdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2003. "Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1070-1075, November.
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    1. Gunnar Bårdsen & Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 629-639, September.
    2. Jean-Marc Ginoux & Franck Jovanovic, 2022. "Solving Vincent Carret's Puzzle: A Rebuttal of Carret's Fallacies and Errors," Working Papers hal-03849582, HAL.
    3. Binh Thai Pham & Hector Sala, 2023. "Fiscal deficits and the socioeconomic consequences of rebalancing: Insights from a TVP‐VAR with stochastic volatility," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 214-235, June.
    4. Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria, 2012. "Panel Data Evidence on the Role of Institutions and Shocks for Unemployment Dynamics and Equilibrium," Memorandum 20/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    5. Marit Gjelsvik & Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman, 2020. "Cointegration and Structure in Norwegian Wage–Price Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, January.
    7. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2012. "Modelling the heuristic dynamics of the wage and price curve model of equilibrium unemployment," Discussion Papers 671, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

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