IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The microfoundations of the Keynesian wage-price spiral

  • Malikane, Christopher

We derive the backward-looking Keynesian wage-price spiral from micro-foundations. The optimal price Phillips curve features one lag of price inflation, the lag of the labour share, excess demand pressure, speed-limit effects and supply shocks. The wage Phillips curve features current and lagged price inflation, excess demand pressure up to the second lag, and the lag of nominal wage inflation. We estimate this model for six developed and emerging market economies and find that the model fits the data well. In general, nominal wages are more flexible than prices with respect to demand pressure. The baseline model rejects the inclusion of supply shocks and indexation of wages in developed economies and some emerging markets.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42921.

in new window

Date of creation: 29 Nov 2012
Date of revision: 29 Nov 2012
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42921
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jordi Galí, 2011. "The Return Of The Wage Phillips Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 436-461, 06.
  2. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Sgro, Pasquale M., 2011. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2022-2033, July.
  3. Sandeep Mazumder, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Cyclicality of Marginal Cost," Economics Working Paper Archive 545, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  4. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "An Optimizing Model of U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics," Departmental Working Papers 200110, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-66, January.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  9. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, 09.
  10. Fair, Ray C., 2008. "Testing price equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1424-1437, November.
  11. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
  12. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, 02.
  13. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Batini, Nicoletta & Jackson, Brian & Nickell, Stephen, 2005. "An open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1061-1071, September.
  15. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May.
  16. Ascari, Guido & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a trend inflation world: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1852-1867.
  17. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
  18. Jordi Gali & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2010. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," 2010 Meeting Papers 126, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Guender, Alfred V., 2007. "The timeless perspective vs. discretion: theory and monetary policy implications for an open economy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  20. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2004. "Weak Identification of Forward-looking Models in Monetary Economics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 609-635, 09.
  21. Huang, Kevin X. D. & Liu, Zheng, 2002. "Staggered price-setting, staggered wage-setting, and business cycle persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 405-433, March.
  22. Jordi Galí, 2000. "The return of the Phillips curve and other recent developments in business cycle theory," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10.
  23. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
  24. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 2000. "High order disequilibrium growth dynamics: Theoretical aspects and numerical features," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 935-963, June.
  25. Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2009. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves and potential identification failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 561-571, December.
  26. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  27. Ambler, Steve & Guay, Alain & Phaneuf, Louis, 2012. "Endogenous business cycle propagation and the persistence problem: The role of labor-market frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 47-62.
  28. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1181-1215, May.
  29. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
  30. Toichiro Asada & Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral: A Baseline Disequilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 139, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  31. Flaschel, Peter & Gong, Gang & Semmler, Willi, 2001. "A Keynesian macroeconometric framework for the analysis of monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 101-136, September.
  32. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  33. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-48, June.
  34. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2010. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve of rational expectations: A serial correlation extension," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 159-179, May.
  35. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  36. Laurence Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Okun's Law: Fit at 50?," Economics Working Paper Archive 606, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  37. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  38. Sen, Anindya & Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1995. "Wage bargaining, imperfect competition and the markup: Optimizing microfoundations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 15-20, April.
  39. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
  41. Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2011. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and staggered price and wage determination in a model with firm-specific labor," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 579-603, April.
  42. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.