IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Inflation dynamics and the cost channel in emerging markets

Listed author(s):
  • Malikane, Christopher

We investigate inflation dynamics and the presence of the cost channel in ten emerging markets since the 1990's from the new Keynesian and triangle Phillips curve perspectives. A negative sign on the output gap is a common finding in new Keynesian specifications. This problem may be addressed by taking into account the endogeneity of the nominal interest rate in the instrument set of GMM estimations. We confirm substantial and significant backward-looking behavior in the inflation process of emerging markets, but its size is not robust to specification in some economies. In almost all the triangle model estimations, except for Hungary, the output gap exhibits the correct sign. Except for Mexico, there is no evidence of the cost channel in emerging market economies. The cost channel is not robust to the endogeneity of the nominal interest rate and to the specification of the Phillips curve.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42688/1/MPRA_paper_42688.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42688.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2012
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42688
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter Montiel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 423-455, September.
  4. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Sgro, Pasquale M., 2011. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2022-2033, July.
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  6. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
  7. Jeremy B. Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Peter Tillmann, 2007. "Robust Monetary Policy with the Cost Channel," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 278, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
  10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar, 2008. "Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 94, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  11. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, 09.
  12. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  13. Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "Bank behavior, incomplete interest rate pass-through, and the cost channel of monetary policy transmission," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1310-1327, November.
  14. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Mathias Hoffmann & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  15. de Jong, A. & Kabir, R. & Nguyen, T.T., 2007. "Capital Structure around the World: The Roles of Firm- and Country-Specific Determinants," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-058-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  16. Kaufmann, Sylvia & Scharler, Johann, 2009. "Financial systems and the cost channel transmission of monetary policy shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 40-46, January.
  17. Surico, Paolo, 2008. "The Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy And Indeterminacy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 724-735, November.
  18. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling inflation dynamics : a critical review of recent research," Open Access publications 10197/201, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  19. Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Eric Mayer & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "The Price Puzzle Revisited: Can the Cost Channel Explain a Rise in Inflation after a Monetary Policy Shock?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2039, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Eugenio Gaiotti & Alessandro Secchi, 2004. "Is there a cost channel of monetary policy transmission? An investigation into the pricing behaviour of 2,000 firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 525, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  21. Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2009. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves and potential identification failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 561-571, December.
  22. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  23. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2012. "Testing the Structural Interpretation of the Price Puzzle with a Cost-Channel Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 425-452, 06.
  24. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-448, June.
  25. Batini, Nicoletta & Jackson, Brian & Nickell, Stephen, 2005. "An open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1061-1071, September.
  26. Rabanal, Pau, 2007. "Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 906-937, March.
  27. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy with an Uncertain Cost Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 885-906, 08.
  28. Tillmann, Peter, 2009. "The time-varying cost channel of monetary transmission," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 941-953, October.
  29. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2004. "Weak Identification of Forward-looking Models in Monetary Economics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 609-635, 09.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42688. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.