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New Keynesian Phillips Curves and potential identification failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood analysis

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  • Martins, Luis F.
  • Gabriel, Vasco J.

Abstract

In this paper, we examine parameter identification in the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve proposed by Gali and Gertler [Gali, J., Gertler, M., 1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195-222]. We employ recently developed moment conditions inference procedures, which provide a more efficient and reliable econometric framework for the analysis of the NKPC. In particular, we address the issue of parameter identification, obtaining robust confidence sets for the model's parameters. Our results cast serious doubts on the empirical validity of the NKPC.

Suggested Citation

  • Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2009. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves and potential identification failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 561-571, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:561-571
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    2. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
    3. Gross, Marco, 2009. "Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1119, European Central Bank.
    4. Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-164, August.
    5. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    6. PETER McADAM & ALPO WILLMAN, 2013. "Technology, Utilization, and Inflation: What Drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1547-1579, December.
    7. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The microfoundations of the Keynesian wage-price spiral," MPRA Paper 42921, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Nov 2012.
    8. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    9. Jakub Mućk & Peter McAdam & Jakub Growiec, 2018. "Will The “True” Labor Share Stand Up? An Applied Survey On Labor Share Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 961-984, September.
    10. Christopher Malikane & Tshepo Mokoka, 2014. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3082-3089, September.
    11. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 42688, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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