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New Keynesian Phillips Curves and potential identification failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood analysis

  • Martins, Luis F.
  • Gabriel, Vasco J.

In this paper, we examine parameter identification in the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve proposed by Gali and Gertler [Gali, J., Gertler, M., 1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195-222]. We employ recently developed moment conditions inference procedures, which provide a more efficient and reliable econometric framework for the analysis of the NKPC. In particular, we address the issue of parameter identification, obtaining robust confidence sets for the model's parameters. Our results cast serious doubts on the empirical validity of the NKPC.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 561-571

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:561-571
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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  7. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  8. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & KHALAF, Lynda & KICHIAN, Maral, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification Robust Econometric Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 22-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  10. Gwin, Carl R. & VanHoose, David D., 2008. "Alternative measures of marginal cost and inflation in estimations of new Keynesian inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 928-940, September.
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  16. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Alain Guay & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Using Implied Probabilities to Improve Estimation with Unconditional Moment Restrictions," Cahiers de recherche 0747, CIRPEE.
  18. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
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  20. Otsu, Taisuke, 2006. "Generalized Empirical Likelihood Inference For Nonlinear And Time Series Models Under Weak Identification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(03), pages 513-527, June.
  21. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August.
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