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The Cost Channel Effect of Monetary Transmission: How Effective Is the ECB’s Low Interest Rate Policy for Increasing Inflation?

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  • Dorothea Schäfer
  • Andreas Stephan
  • Khanh Trung Hoang

Abstract

We examine whether monetary transmission during the financial and sovereign debt crisis was dominated by the cost channel or by the demand-side channel effect. We use two approaches to track down the potential passthrough of changes in the monetary policy rate to those in consumer prices. First, we utilize panel data from the German manufacturing industry. Second, we conduct time series analyses for Germany, Italy, and Spain. We find that when manufacturing firms’ interest costs drop, the changes in their respective industry’s price index are smaller one year later. This finding is consistent with the cost channel theory. Taken together, the results of both panel data and time series analyses imply that the ECB’s low interest rate policy has worked better for boosting inflation in Italy and Spain than in Germany

Suggested Citation

  • Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan & Khanh Trung Hoang, 2017. "The Cost Channel Effect of Monetary Transmission: How Effective Is the ECB’s Low Interest Rate Policy for Increasing Inflation?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1654, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaufmann, Sylvia & Scharler, Johann, 2009. "Financial systems and the cost channel transmission of monetary policy shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 40-46, January.
    2. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Hoffmann, Mathias & Schabert, Andreas, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 995-1016, May.
    3. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    4. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    5. Henzel, Steffen & Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "The price puzzle revisited: Can the cost channel explain a rise in inflation after a monetary policy shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 268-289, June.
    6. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 42688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Smith, Andrew Lee, 2015. "When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?," Research Working Paper RWP 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Rabanal, Pau, 2007. "Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 906-937, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; cost channel; monetary transmission;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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