IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Double Conditioned Potential Output

  • Dobrescu, Emilian


The central argument of this paper is that both - internal and external - equilibria should be taken into account in the estimation of potential output. If only the data on inflation, unemployment rate, and wages are used for its evaluation, no certainty exists that such a level will correspond to a stable foreign trade balance. Our attempt is based on the following methodological assumption: - the potential output is concomitantly associated with a constant inflation and suistanable relative foreign trade balance (ratio of net export to gross domestic product); - all supply shocks affect this level, potential output being, therefore, a variable indicator; - consequently, the output gap reflects exclusively the demand pressure. The proposed computational algorithm is based on the use of orthogonal regression. It is exemplified on seasonally adjusted quarterly statistical series of variables charaterizing the Romanian transition economy; this application shows that the estimated output gap does contain significant regular and irregular cyclical components.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its series Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting with number 070701.

in new window

Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:070701
Contact details of provider: Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Domenech, Rafael & Gomez, Victor, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU as Latent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 354-365, July.
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
  4. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Why is Spanish Unemployment so High?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ghizdeanu, Ion & Neagu, Marian, 2003. "Estimarea produsului intern brut potential," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 030104, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  7. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  8. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
  10. Evans, George W, 1989. "Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 213-37, July-Sept.
  11. Black, Angela J & FitzRoy, Felix R, 2000. "Earning Curves and Wage Curves," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(5), pages 471-86, November.
  12. Karl Whelan, 1997. "Wage Curve vs. Phillips Curve : are there macroeconomic implications?," Open Access publications 10197/246, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  13. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1990. " The Wage Curve," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 215-35.
    • David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, June.
  14. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  15. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809.
  17. Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  18. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
  20. Olivier Blanchard & Pedro Portugal, 1998. "What Hides Behind An Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and Us Unemployment," Working Papers w199803, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  21. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  22. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
  23. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
  25. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in Transitional Economies: A theoretical and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081103, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  28. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
  29. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2000. "Explaining European Unemployment: Testing the NAIRU Theory and a Keynesian Approach," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp068, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  30. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
  31. Gunnar Bårdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2000. "Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU," Working Paper Series 1602, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Apr 2002.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:070701. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.