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Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy

  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    (National Institute for Economic Research – Macroeconomic Modelling Center, Member of the Romanian Academy)

The paper revises the previous author’s estimates of the medium-term evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organized in three chapters. The first examines the most important crisis and post-crisis problems of Romania. The analysis is developed preponderantly from a structural point of view. The second chapter presents three simulated scenarios for the period 2010-2014. One of them (named the Base Scenario BSc) is conceived with macroeconomic parameters close to those envisaged by Government, in correlation with the IMF stand-by Agreement. The other two (the Worsened Scenarios W1Sc and W2Sc) admit less favorable domestic and external business environment. In the final chapter, the results of simulations are compared to each other and also to the officially accepted forecasting documents. Some former similar predictions (anticipating more optimistic indicators) are discussed from the modeling perspective.

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File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_10/rjef2_10_1.pdf
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Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 7-28

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:7-28
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  1. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 219-265, 04.
  2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2004. "Double conditioned potential output," MPRA Paper 35769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Dobrescu, Emilian & Pauna, Bianca, 2007. "Stochastic simulations on the Romanian macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 35723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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