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Econometric Inflation Targeting

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Gunnar Bårdsen

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Eilev S. Jansen

    ()

    (Norges Bank and Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Ragnar Nymoen

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

Inflation targeting requires inflation forecasts, yet most models in the literature are either theoretical or calibrated. The motivation for this paper is therefore threefold: We seek to test and implement an econometric model forforecasting inflation in Norway–one economy recently opting for formal inflation targeting rather than a managed nominal exchange rate. We also seek to quantify the relative importance of the di?erent transmission mechanisms– with basis in empirical estimates rather than calibrated values. Finally, we want to focus on and exploit econometric issues required in the design and estimation of econometric models used for inflation forecasting and policy analysis.

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File URL: http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/WP/2002/5inftarg.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 0502.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 13 Apr 1999
Date of revision: 30 Oct 2001
Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:0502
Contact details of provider: Postal:
7491 Trondheim

Phone: 73 59 19 40
Fax: 73 59 69 54
Web page: http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/WP/wp.htm
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Keywords: inflation targeting; monetary policy; wages and prices; cointegration; dynamic modelling;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
  • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
  • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
  • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
  • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  2. Steinar Holden, 2003. "Wage-setting under Different Monetary Regimes," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(278), pages 251-265, 05.
  3. Qaisar Farooq Akram, 2000. "When Does the Oil Price Affect the Norwegian Exchange Rate?," Economics Series Working Papers 31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  5. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  7. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rodseth,A. & Nymoen,R., 1999. "Nordic wage formation and unemployment seven years later," Memorandum 10/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  9. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
  10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  11. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Johansen, Kare, 1995. "Norwegian Wage Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 229-247, May.
  13. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  15. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
  16. Bardsen, G. & Fisher, P.G. & Nymoen, R., 1994. "Business Cycles: Real Facts or Fallacies?," Papers 20-94, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
  17. Øistein Røisland & Ragnar Torvik, 2004. "Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 265-285.
  18. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
  19. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 1998. "Unemployment and the open economy wage-price spiral," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 450-467, October.
  20. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  22. Paul G. Fisher & Gunnar BÅrdsen, 1999. "Economic theory and econometric dynamics in modelling wages and prices in the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 483-507.
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