IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nst/samfok/0502.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Econometric Inflation Targeting

Author

Listed:
  • Gunnar Bårdsen

    () (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Eilev S. Jansen

    () (Norges Bank and Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Ragnar Nymoen

    () (Department of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

Inflation targeting requires inflation forecasts, yet most models in the literature are either theoretical or calibrated. The motivation for this paper is therefore threefold: We seek to test and implement an econometric model forforecasting inflation in Norway–one economy recently opting for formal inflation targeting rather than a managed nominal exchange rate. We also seek to quantify the relative importance of the di?erent transmission mechanisms– with basis in empirical estimates rather than calibrated values. Finally, we want to focus on and exploit econometric issues required in the design and estimation of econometric models used for inflation forecasting and policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 1999. "Econometric Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 0502, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Oct 2001.
  • Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:0502
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/WP/2002/5inftarg.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
    3. Steinar Holden, 2002. "Wage Setting Under Different Monetary Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 632, CESifo.
    4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Qaisar Farooq Akram & Research Department & Norges Bank, 2000. "When Does the Oil Price Affect the Norwegian Exchange Rate?," Economics Series Working Papers 31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
    8. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    9. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    11. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Bardsen, G. & Fisher, P.G. & Nymoen, R., 1994. "Business Cycles: Real Facts or Fallacies?," Papers 20-94, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    14. Øistein Røisland & Ragnar Torvik, 2004. "Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 265-285.
    15. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    16. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 1998. "Unemployment and the open economy wage-price spiral," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 450-467, October.
    17. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    18. Holden,S., 1999. "Wage setting under different monetary regimes," Memorandum 12/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    19. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    20. Rodseth,A. & Nymoen,R., 1999. "Nordic wage formation and unemployment seven years later," Memorandum 10/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    21. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    23. Paul G. Fisher & Gunnar BÅrdsen, 1999. "Economic theory and econometric dynamics in modelling wages and prices in the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 483-507.
    24. Johansen, Kare, 1995. "Norwegian Wage Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 229-247, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    2. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper 2004/10, Norges Bank.
    3. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper Series 2102, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    4. Gunnar Bårdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2003. "Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1070-1075, November.
    5. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë Mchugh, 2007. "Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 143-158, June.
    6. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 495-517.
    7. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    8. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2008. "Regime shifts and the stability of backward-looking Phillips curves in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 40-53, February.
    9. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2003. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Memorandum 18/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    10. Éric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 357-388.
    11. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan," Working Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    12. Leitemo,K., 1999. "Inflation targeting strategies in small open economies," Memorandum 21/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    13. Michel Boutillier & Michel Guillard & Auguste Mpacko-Priso, 2000. "Règles monétaires et prévisions d’inflation en économie ouverte," Documents de recherche 00-12, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    14. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Roger Bjørnstad & Ragnar Nymoen, 1999. "Wage and Profitability: Norwegian Manufacturing 1967-1998," Discussion Papers 259, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    16. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.
    17. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    19. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics.
    20. Mash, Richard, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 138, Royal Economic Society.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; monetary policy; wages and prices; cointegration; dynamic modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:0502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Larsen). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/isontno.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.