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Dollarization, Economic Growth, and Employment

  • Raimundo Soto

    ()

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

Dollarization brought economic stability to Ecuador and higher economic growth. The labor market has not reacted accordingly and unemployment rates remain stubbornly around 10%. I use a simple econometric model of the labor market to disentangle the impact on employment of GDP growth, real wages, the cost of capital, and the real exchange rate. I found two opposing effects at work. On one hand, vigorous economic growth has led to a substantial expansion of labor demand (scale effect). On the other hand, changes in relative factor prices brought about by the dollarization process have played against employment creation (substitution effects): real minimum wages have increased while at the same time the real price of imported intermediate goods and the cost of capital have declined steadily. Together, these price changes indicate that labor is becoming a more expensive factor of production and, thus, signal for substituting labor away.

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File URL: http://www.economia.puc.cl/docs/dt_338.pdf
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Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 338.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:338
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  1. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  4. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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