Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC
We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to DGP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e., of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.
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